FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 1998
James E. Rankin: (202) 606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 98-36
Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays)
Recorded message: 606-5303
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: OCTOBER 1998
Personal income increased $31.3 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable
personal income (DPI) increased $28.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, in October,
according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $29.4 billion, or 0.5 percent. In
September, personal income increased $16.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI
increased $16.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, and PCE increased $42.0 billion,
or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates.
1998
June July Aug. Sept. Oct.
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars .2 .4 .4 .3 .5
Chained (1992) dollars .3 .3 .2 .3 .3
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars .6 .1 .4 .7 .5
Chained (1992) dollars .6 -.1 .3 .8 .3
Wages and salaries
Private wage and salary disbursements increased $18.6 billion in October,
compared with an increase of $6.2 billion in September. Goods-producing
industries' payrolls increased $3.2 billion, compared with an increase of
$0.6 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $0.9 billion, in contrast
to an increase of $3.5 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls increased
$2.6 billion, compared with an increase of $3.8 billion. Service industries'
payrolls increased $12.9 billion, compared with an increase of $1.7 billion.
Government wage and salary disbursements increased $3.2 billion, compared
with an increase of $2.5 billion.
Other personal income
Proprietors' income increased $4.8 billion in October, compared with an
increase of $1.3 billion in September. Farm proprietors' income increased
$0.8 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $1.7 billion. Nonfarm proprietors'
income increased $4.1 billion, compared with an increase of $3.0 billion.
Transfer payments increased $1.9 billion in October, compared with an
increase of $3.9 billion in September. Personal interest income increased
$1.4 billion, compared with an increase of $1.2 billion. Personal dividend
income increased $1.0 billion, compared with an increase of $0.9 billion.
Rental income of persons increased $1.1 billion, compared with an increase
of $0.8 billion.
Personal taxes and disposable personal income
Personal tax and nontax payments increased $3.3 billion in October, compared
with an increase of $0.4 billion in September. Disposable personal income (DPI)
-- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $28.0
billion, or 0.5 percent, in October, compared with an increase of $16.3 billion,
or 0.3 percent, in September.
Personal outlays and personal saving
Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer
payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $30.8 billion in October,
compared with an increase of $43.5 billion in September. PCE increased $29.4
billion, compared with an increase of $42.0 billion.
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $11.9 billion
in October, compared with a negative $9.1 billion in September. Negative
personal saving, or dissaving, may occur when outlays are financed by borrowing
-- including borrowing through credit cards or home equity loans -- selling
investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. Personal
saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a negative 0.2 percent
in October, compared with a negative 0.1 percent in September.
Chained (1992) dollar estimates
Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in
October, the same increase as in September.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in
October, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in September. Purchases of
durable goods increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent;
motor vehicle purchases accounted for most of the increase in each month.
Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent in October, compared with
an increase of 0.2 percent in September. Purchases of services decreased less
than 0.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent.
Revisions
Estimates have been revised for July through September. Changes in personal
income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and
chained (1992) dollar PCE for August and September -- revised and as published
in the previous release -- are shown below. Revisions for July were small.
Change from preceding month
August September
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars . . 29.6 29.6 0.4 0.4 12.1 16.7 0.2 0.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars . . 19.0 21.1 .3 .4 9.7 16.3 .2 .3
Chained (1992) dollars 10.8 12.7 .2 .2 10.5 16.4 .2 .3
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars . . 25.4 21.3 .4 .4 31.9 42.0 .5 .7
Chained (1992) dollars 16.7 13.1 .3 .3 30.1 39.1 .6 .8
* * *
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates;
selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news
releases are available on BEA's web site:
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Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public
release at the following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
606-5303 Personal income and outlays
606-5362 Summary of international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business,
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* * *
Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for November will be released on
December 24, at 8:30 A.M. EST.
Release dates in 1999 for Personal Income and Outlays
Release covering Release date
December 1998 February 1
January 1999 March 1
February 1999 April 1
March 1999 May 3
April 1999 May 28
May 1999 June 28
June 1999 July 30
July 1999 August 27
August 1999 October 1
September 1999 November 2
October 1999 November 26
November 1999 December 23
Table 1. -- Personal Income
[Billions of dollars]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
-----------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98p
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,085.9 7,104.4 7,132.2 7,161.8 7,178.5 7,209.8
Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,631.1 3,889.8 4,124.3 4,131.0 4,153.5 4,183.5 4,192.1 4,214.0
Private industries.............. 2,990.2 3,225.7 3,438.6 3,442.8 3,463.4 3,490.6 3,496.8 3,515.4
Goods-producing industries.... 909.0 975.0 1,025.5 1,021.3 1,020.8 1,030.6 1,031.2 1,034.4
Manufacturing............... 674.6 719.5 753.2 748.3 743.7 752.4 755.9 755.0
Distributive industries....... 823.3 879.8 935.6 934.4 941.5 946.3 950.1 952.7
Service industries............ 1,257.9 1,370.8 1,477.5 1,487.1 1,501.0 1,513.8 1,515.5 1,528.4
Government...................... 640.9 664.2 685.7 688.1 690.2 692.9 695.4 698.6
Other labor income................ 387.0 392.9 405.7 406.6 407.5 408.3 409.2 410.1
Proprietors' income with IVA and
CCAdj........................... 527.7 551.2 570.2 574.8 576.9 574.5 575.8 580.6
Farm............................ 38.9 35.5 27.7 28.2 26.4 24.7 23.0 23.8
Nonfarm......................... 488.8 515.8 542.5 546.6 550.5 549.8 552.8 556.9
Rental income of persons with
CCAdj........................... 150.2 158.2 160.9 162.6 163.0 163.5 164.3 165.4
Personal dividend income.......... 248.2 260.3 262.1 262.3 262.4 262.8 263.7 264.7
Personal interest income.......... 719.4 747.3 762.8 765.0 766.5 767.5 768.7 770.1
Transfer payments to persons...... 1,068.0 1,110.4 1,145.3 1,148.3 1,150.2 1,151.5 1,155.4 1,157.3
Old-age, survivors, disability,
and health insurance benefits. 538.0 565.9 585.1 586.2 588.0 588.5 589.6 590.3
Government unemployment
insurance benefits............ 21.9 19.9 19.4 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.5 19.6
Other........................... 508.0 524.6 540.8 542.5 542.7 543.8 546.3 547.4
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................ 306.3 326.2 345.5 346.2 347.7 349.9 350.7 352.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
IVA Inventory valuation adjustment
CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income
[Billions of dollars]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98p
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income....................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,085.9 7,104.4 7,132.2 7,161.8 7,178.5 7,209.8
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... 890.5 989.0 1,094.9 1,100.5 1,102.1 1,110.5 1,110.9 1,114.2
Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,534.7 5,795.1 5,990.9 6,004.0 6,030.2 6,051.3 6,067.6 6,095.6
Less: Personal outlays............... 5,376.2 5,674.1 5,970.4 6,005.2 6,010.4 6,033.2 6,076.7 6,107.5
Personal consumption expenditures... 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,782.1 5,815.0 5,818.0 5,839.3 5,881.3 5,910.7
Interest paid by persons............ 143.6 161.5 168.4 170.4 171.9 173.4 175.0 176.4
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net)........... 16.9 18.9 19.9 19.9 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4
Equals: Personal saving.............. 158.5 121.0 20.5 -1.2 19.8 18.1 -9.1 -11.9
Addenda:
Disposable personal income:
Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 5,043.0 5,183.1 5,318.8 5,334.0 5,348.3 5,361.0 5,377.4 5,391.2
Per capita:
Current dollars................... 20,840 21,633 22,200 22,231 22,310 22,369 22,410 22,495
Chained (1992) dollars............ 18,989 19,349 19,709 19,751 19,787 19,817 19,861 19,896
Population (thousands).............. 265,579 267,880 269,862 270,069 270,289 270,522 270,757 270,973
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income ......... 2.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period
[Billions of dollars]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98p
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income....................... 353.1 358.8 30.6 18.5 27.8 29.6 16.7 31.3
Wage and salary disbursements........ 202.6 258.7 26.7 6.7 22.5 30.0 8.6 21.9
Private industries................ 184.4 235.5 24.6 4.2 20.6 27.2 6.2 18.6
Goods-producing industries...... 45.1 66.0 2.7 -4.2 -0.5 9.8 0.6 3.2
Manufacturing................. 26.7 44.9 2.4 -4.9 -4.6 8.7 3.5 -0.9
Distributive industries......... 40.4 56.5 9.2 -1.2 7.1 4.8 3.8 2.6
Service industries.............. 99.0 112.9 12.8 9.6 13.9 12.8 1.7 12.9
Government........................ 18.2 23.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.5 3.2
Other labor income.................. -14.6 5.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
Proprietors' income with IVA and
CCAdj............................. 39.6 23.5 0.0 4.6 2.1 -2.4 1.3 4.8
Farm.............................. 16.5 -3.4 0.5 0.5 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 0.8
Nonfarm........................... 23.2 27.0 -0.5 4.1 3.9 -0.7 3.0 4.1
Rental income of persons with
CCAdj............................. 16.5 8.0 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1
Personal dividend income............ 55.4 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0
Personal interest income............ 14.5 27.9 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.4
Transfer payments to persons........ 52.1 42.4 1.5 3.0 1.9 1.3 3.9 1.9
Old-age, survivors, disability,
and health insurance benefits... 30.2 27.9 1.4 1.1 1.8 0.5 1.1 0.7
Government unemployment
insurance benefits.............. 0.5 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1
Other............................. 21.4 16.6 0.3 1.7 0.2 1.1 2.5 1.1
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance.................. 12.7 19.9 1.9 0.7 1.5 2.2 0.8 1.7
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments............................ 95.5 98.5 11.6 5.6 1.6 8.4 0.4 3.3
Equals: Disposable personal income.... 257.6 260.4 18.9 13.1 26.2 21.1 16.3 28.0
Less: Personal outlays................ 279.0 297.9 56.0 34.8 5.2 22.8 43.5 30.8
Personal consumption expenditures... 261.8 278.0 58.2 32.9 3.0 21.3 42.0 29.4
Interest paid by persons............ 16.0 17.9 -2.2 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net)........... 1.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equals: Personal saving............... -21.3 -37.5 -37.1 -21.7 21.0 -1.7 -27.2 -2.8
Addendum:
Disposable personal income,
chained (1992) dollars.......... 136.9 140.1 7.1 15.2 14.3 12.7 16.4 13.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
IVA Inventory valuation adjustment
CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures..... 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,782.1 5,815.0 5,818.0 5,839.3 5,881.3 5,910.7
Durable goods....................... 643.3 673.0 724.3 737.3 707.4 715.4 733.5 749.7
Nondurable goods.................... 1,539.2 1,600.6 1,657.9 1,661.0 1,669.9 1,669.5 1,670.3 1,678.1
Services............................ 3,033.2 3,220.1 3,399.9 3,416.7 3,440.7 3,454.4 3,477.4 3,482.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of chained (1992) dollars
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,752.4 4,913.5 5,133.4 5,166.1 5,160.1 5,173.2 5,212.3 5,227.6
Durable goods....................... 626.1 668.6 734.0 749.8 719.4 729.8 751.6 768.2
Nondurable goods.................... 1,450.9 1,486.3 1,540.7 1,545.2 1,551.2 1,546.6 1,548.9 1,550.4
Services............................ 2,676.7 2,761.5 2,866.1 2,880.0 2,894.1 2,902.0 2,919.0 2,918.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures..... 109.75 111.81 112.64 112.56 112.75 112.88 112.84 113.07
Durable goods....................... 102.75 100.66 98.68 98.33 98.34 98.03 97.60 97.59
Nondurable goods.................... 106.08 107.69 107.61 107.49 107.65 107.94 107.84 108.23
Services............................ 113.32 116.61 118.62 118.63 118.89 119.04 119.13 119.34
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change from preceding period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures..... 261.8 278.0 58.2 32.9 3.0 21.3 42.0 29.4
Durable goods....................... 32.3 29.7 25.7 13.0 -29.9 8.0 18.1 16.2
Nondurable goods.................... 65.6 61.4 11.1 3.1 8.9 -0.4 0.8 7.8
Services............................ 164.0 186.9 21.4 16.8 24.0 13.7 23.0 5.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of chained (1992) dollars
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures..... 146.8 161.1 42.3 32.7 -6.0 13.1 39.1 15.3
Durable goods....................... 37.0 42.5 29.8 15.8 -30.4 10.4 21.8 16.6
Nondurable goods.................... 33.3 35.4 3.9 4.5 6.0 -4.6 2.3 1.5
Services............................ 77.1 84.8 11.8 13.9 14.1 7.9 17.0 -0.5
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98p
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on current dollars
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income....................... 5.8 5.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4
Disposable personal income............ 4.9 4.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5
Personal consumption expenditures..... 5.3 5.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5
Durable goods....................... 5.3 4.6 3.7 1.8 -4.0 1.1 2.5 2.2
Nondurable goods.................... 4.4 4.0 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.5
Services............................ 5.7 6.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.2
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on chained (1992) dollars
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disposable personal income............ 2.8 2.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Personal consumption expenditures..... 3.2 3.4 0.8 0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3
Durable goods....................... 6.3 6.8 4.2 2.1 -4.1 1.5 3.0 2.2
Nondurable goods.................... 2.4 2.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.1
Services............................ 3.0 3.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------
p Preliminary. r Revised.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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