Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (41062)	11/25/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Test your DRAM IQ By Jack Robertson Electronic Buyers' News (11/25/98, 11:47:29 AM EDT) Get out your pencils and get ready for the 1999 market-forecast quiz on whether the global DRAM glut will continue: On the supply side, will the South Koreans abandon their self-professed DRAM production cuts and ramp back up on idle capacity? If yes, add 1 point. Everyone can add 1 more point for the new fab capacity Samsung Electronics is building in Austin, Texas. Everyone can also add 1 point for Micron Technology accelerating die-shrink transitioning at Boise fabs midyear, from 0.21 micron to 0.18 micron. Add another point for Micron starting to bring on upgraded (0.21-micron) die shrinks at former Texas Instrument fab complexes later in 1999. Will the chip merger of South Korea's LG Semicon and Hyundai Electronics Industries be consummated? If no, subtract 1 point to reflect the two companies' unresolved financial straits. If yes, still subtract 1 point because of post-merger turmoil. Add 1 point for each major 64-Mbit fab with wafer-start capacity of at least 15,000 per month that's shifting 100% to sub-0.25-micron die shrinks. Do nothing on 5- and 6-in.-wafer fab closings. These trailing-edge fabs are now inconsequential in global supply. OEM buyers of 64-Mbit DRAMs also don't figure on any closing of 16-Meg fabs. However, 16-Meg DRAM buyers should subtract 2 points to reflect rapidly disappearing supply. Add 1 point if you believe Taiwanese DRAM makers will continue to ramp up. What will Japanese memory companies do? No points allowed, since it isn't clear at this point that the Japanese really know what they want to do. If the new semiconductor spinoff from Siemens AG finds a partner of equal size for a more powerful alliance, score your own answer. It depends on whether you think the combine will pour on production to compete for world market share, or the alliance will join an exclusive club of DRAM giants, each with about 20% market share, acting to bring more order to the market. On the DRAM demand side, estimate PC sales in the first half of 1999. Subtract 1 point if you think demand will increase from the current holiday-season fourth quarter, add 1 point if you say demand will decline. Estimate the 1999 sales trend for sub-$1,000 to $500 PCs, which use half as much memory as conventional PCs; add 1 point if you think sales of cut-rate PCs will continue to account for a larger portion of total PC shipments. Will non-PC memory demand jump significantly? The answer is straight- forward: Non-PC memory demand will rise as long as glut and low prices continue. If supply balances demand (and prices consequently go up), the pace of non-PC memory buying will slacken. Before you total your score, tack the quiz to the wall. Throw darts at the range of options in each question. Then add up the score for the darts. That's probably as good an outlook as any for the wacky DRAM market. ebnews.com

To: TREND1 who wrote (41062)	11/25/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Micron Technology CEO Sees Pay Fall 80% as Company Loses Money Bloomberg News November 25, 1998, 4:05 p.m. PT Micron Technology CEO Sees Pay Fall 80% as Company Loses Money Boise, Idaho, Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Micron Technology Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Steve Appleton felt the bite of slumping memory-chip prices in the company's latest fiscal year: The total value of his pay package fell 80 percent. Micron, the world's No. 2 maker of dynamic random-access memory chips, pays its top executives bonuses based on the company's performance. Micron lost $233.7 million in the year ended Sept. 3, compared with net income of $332.2 million in 1997. Appleton's pay fell to $666,374 from $3.3 million, according to a company filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Micron has been losing money because of a global glut of DRAM. Many manufacturers rushed to build plants in 1994 and 1995, when prices were higher, creating oversupply. Analysts say it will be tough for DRAM makers to make money in 1999 as well. ''All the way through 1999, there will be oversupply,'' said Jim Handy, an analyst at market researcher Dataquest in San Jose, California. Handy said he expects the DRAM industry as a whole to lose $5 billion in 1999, down from $9 billion this year. That would be bad news for Appleton and other Micron executives. The biggest difference in Appleton's pay in the last fiscal year was that his bonus totaled just $4,246, down from $2.73 million in fiscal 1997 and $1.55 million in 1996. He also was granted no new stock options in fiscal 1998. Appleton, 38, is credited with running the lowest-cost producer of DRAM in the world, which gives him an edge over industry leader Samsung Electronics Co. of Korea and others. Many investors are betting that Micron will start making money again soon. Shares of the Boise, Idaho, company have risen 50 percent in three months. They rose 15/16 to 44 13/16 today. Micron earlier this year bought Texas Instruments Inc.'s money-losing DRAM operations for $881 million, paying for much of the purchase with Micron stock. In October, Intel Corp., the world's largest microprocessor maker, said it invested $500 million in Micron to assure a supply of memory chips.