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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Liatris Spicata who wrote (7603)	11/25/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 9980

Larry, All depositors in an insured institution, originally by FSLIC then later combined into FDIC, did not lose any money in accts below $100K. As for assets, I am not sure if RTC actually ensured anything. I think a lot of the confusion ended up in the GlenFed and CalFed lawsuits which the government eventually lost. The reasons I think the yen will go down: 1) what is the reason they went up in the first place, in reaction to US rates dropping? So it is really not yen going up vs US$ going down. US Fed rate is still in the 4% range, assuming more cuts coming, it will still be much higher than the almost zero equivalent in Japan. 2) the Japanese economy is probably heading to deep recession or outright depression. To reflate the economy, they need to print more and more money. 3) companies like Sony, Honda, Canon all benefited from the weak yen a qtr ago at 140 or higher exchange rate. They are going to be killed this qtr at 120. IntraAsia trade is all but wiped out. This is the wrong time for them to be reducing the trade surplus against US. 4) they will be financing all these grand schemes, from the bank bailout plan to economic stimulus plans. What will the demand for up to US$1 trillion in JGBs and at what rate? Solution - print more money and go back to 2) above. 5) I have a few friends who just returned from HK/China and report bad news. Unemployment is high. China has suspended major downsizing to avoid unrest from massive layoffs. Factories are loosing orders to competitors in other Asian nations. If low cost China is facing this type of price pressure, I wonder how is Japan doing against Korea, Taiwan and others. 6) I am sure there are more but can't think of them now. How about if you come up with some reasons why the yen will go up? Ramsey

To: Liatris Spicata who wrote (7603)	11/25/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

<offtopic> G'day all - 1st, Happy Thanksgiving to all my cyberfriends here! [Re: S&L,] 1st, Larry, an advance apology if I am rehashing stuff you have already covered, as I have not followed every bit of the exchange. Your point of "no depositors lost money" might have ended up to be a murky counterfactual proposition had the RTC not stepped in. A colleague of mine at the time, who was very good in accumulating wealth as I was good in losing it [still am <sg>,] was tied up with one of his accounts for a while - especially when he had more than 100K in a single bank. Having said that, I do not think anyone likes the idea of tax payers subsidizing mess and greed from people like Charles Keatings. However, I'd like to point out there are more insidious situations out there. The S&L situation did take the wind out of the US economy and Mr Seidman had to perform surgeries. And yes, many vulture capitalists probably had profited for their predecessors' greed and foolishness [on the tax payers' back,] but I submit to you the following example: cgi.pathfinder.com best, Bosco