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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (2847)	11/25/1998 5:43:00 PM
From: flatsville	Respond to of 9818

John--I'm expecting another run in y2k stocks--no decoupling--but a subtantial run. At least one fund analysts (Starker? Fidelity Magellan) is starting to get nervous about y2k's fallout on earnings in general and has made a public statement in that regard. I think the wake-up call to mo players that it's time to return will happen before real fear and loathing takes the whole market down for the count. There's simply too much money to be made. I mean how else can you explain what's happening with internet stocks? "flatsville"

To: John Mansfield who wrote (2847)	11/25/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: Stewart V. Nelson	Respond to of 9818

John I have given this question a great deal of thought over the last year. I have decided that Wall Street will not take the time to differentiate between a Y2k stock and any other type of stock. IMHO the selling will be brutal and last long enough to change the "Buy On Dips" paradigm. It will be exacerbated by the Boomers realizing that their vanishing "stock" savings plans are going to jeopardize their retirement plans! I suspect it will start when the first bellwether technology stock, maybe CSCO, pre-announces an earnings shortfall and blames a Y2K slowdown. I have read in numerous disclosures that most large companies are planning an IT spending freeze once they have remediated. The idea is to head into the date change with a stable network. This has to affect high priced networking and computer hardware technology stocks. The deluge will quickly spread to rest of the new "Nifty-Fifty". The are only two things that could prop up stocks in 1999; one is a build up of inventory and raw materials as part of the contingency plans in case of disruptions in the supply chains, and the other is liquidity supplied by the Fed to insure that there is enough money/credit in circulation to pay for all this stuff. This will only delay the inevitable. I have sold most of my stock holdings and gone to zero coupon bonds. I believe the Fed will insure that I make money on my bonds. In 2000 we are going to have an unprecedented opportunity to buy all the stocks we wished we had in our portfolios when they go "on sale"! Regards Stewart V. Nelson