To: Original Mad Dog who wrote (15612 ) 11/25/1998 9:09:00 PM From: HG Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
MadDog....I must say this is SO unlike ISFPs.....to carry a discussion this far. Proves how wrong I can be. More Shakespeare - depth and meaning. Strong characterisation....along with impenetrable lingo. Meant it as a compliment ! YHOO a belief and a momentum play. Hmmm..then I'm a momentum player for short term and *true believer* for the long term. Hence my in and out of stock. I jump into the bandwagon when the spike is imminent and jump out during quiet periods. What would you classify me as ? Note that I don't run after AMZN (TGLO is the only skeleton in my cupboard). Do the true believers stay even in the face of a 50% correction ? I wouldn't. We AGREE on YHOO being more than a momentum play, that there **still** is tremendous potential (note the emphasis - post AOL/NSCP merger). Actually, I think we don't disagree on anything now except the justification of current valuation. Does it mean you changed your mind, or did I, or did both "learn along the way" ? Calling my bluff was just a theoritical example to analyse the thought process involved in the recent irrational increase in the price. Yes, institutional investors will monitor the risks well and are a big concern...and yes, irrationality cannot be rationalised beyond a certain point. Thats why price MUST plateau, which I think it will - within 250-350 range <sorry - cant do better than that >>. What are your views ? Do you believe it could crash one day to 150 ? When you quote historic incidents re: fundamentals - are they as relevant ? Are you talking about instances where a paradigm shift was involved ? Could you please quote examples/references so I can understand better ? My strategy remains the same - remain invested but keep going in and out till a pattern emerges. Then hold and forget - as one would do with CSCO or MSFT. I agree it will be more and more difficult to justify irrational increase. I also think the pattern is about to emerge real soon...esp if there is a merger (real or virtual). I would not exit longterm though. What about you ? Do you really want to spend so much time here,know so much about the movements and sentiments without getting into it ? You've revised your target from 110 you say - I presume thats 150. Will you now revise it to 185 ? Why didn't you buy it when it was 150, or 185 ? You know, I chased DELL like this - I'd put limit orders at 62, when it was at 65 etc. Eventually, I threw caution to the wind and bough it @50(post split ;(, I bought more @55, bought more @65. By the time I had a desirable portfolio - it had matured ! Its still my core holding and I wouldn't sell it for anything, but the growth opportunity is gone ! Taught me a lesson - if you want something - go for it ! In the long run, you wont be sorry. You may, however, be sorry if you wait too long. Works in real life, works in investments. You know, you might buy 1 share, then 1 more, then 1 more. If it tanks by 50% - well, you lose some change. If it takes off, you could have a paid weekend @ the nearest resort ! You're right about the prisoner's dilemma. If we could all collude, prices could go up indefinitely. I must do what is best for me. Hence the risk. My previous post to you answers it. Holding/Selling is a lose lose situation for me and I will choose the path which leads me to lose the least. The Bloggs - ah yes. To recap, the parents are true believers. The son is a trader - a momentum player, another son is an employee at YHOO. The son-in-law, if you remember is an institutional investor (where would you place him ?). Now the Joe **Blows**...well that's another story altogether. Maybe next time ;) Happy holidays.