A Programmer's Response
to Dave Hunt's Y2K Position
by Stan Osterbauer November 14, 1998
__________________________________________________________
I have been a programmer for 16 years. As Computer System
Manager at Hiller Helicopters in the mid-1980's, I used one
of the ancient computer languages most problem Y2K programs
were written in, RPG. Because of this, I was asked to help
with Year 2000 repairs at the Clallam County Courthouse
(WA).
It was a real eye-opener. What I assumed was a minor
problem for a few mainframes proved to be a real headache,
and a potential threat to society.
I find Dave Hunt's Y2K position misinformed. He quotes
several people (who are not programmers) who believe that
Y2K will be a "non-event". Among these are: a salesman, an
economist, a banker, and the administrator of the Office of
Management & Budget (OMB).
The only halfway credible source Mr. Hunt lists is the OMB.
However, OMB'S credibility has been stretched thin by a
series of missed Y2K deadlines. Every time a deadline is
missed, OMB quietly ignores it, and announces a new, "firm"
deadline. The latest is now March 31, 1999.
Allow me to introduce you to some of those who believe Y2K
is a real threat to our society:
- Sherry Burns, director of Year 2000 Office, Central
Intelligence Agency: "I think most people are again
assuming that things are going to operate the way they
always have. That is not going to be the case. "
- Senator Christopher Dodd (D-Connecticut), co-chairman,
Senate Committee on Y2K: "Quite honestly, I think we are no
longer at the point of asking, 'Will there be any power
disruptions?' We are now forced to ask, 'How severe will
those disruptions be?'... If critical industries and
government agencies don't start to pick up the pace of
dealing with this problem right now, Congress and the
Clinton administration are going to have to make some very
tough decisions to deal with a true national emergency. "
- Ralph J. Szgenda, Chief Information Officer General
Motors: "...there are catastrophic problems in every GM
plant."
- Dr. Ed Yardeni, Managing Director & Chief Economist,
Deutche Bank; Keynote address to Bank for International
Settlements: "Let's stop pretending that Y2K isn't a major
threat to our way of life. There is too much at stake for
such uninformed wishful thinking. "
- British Prime Minister Tony Blair: "The millennium bug is
one of the most serious problems facing not only British
business but the global economy today. The impact cannot be
underestimated. "
- Edward Kelly, Federal Reserve Board: "Some people without
technological expertise think the whole 'millennium bug'
issue is overblown. Don't you believe it. Comments that
doubt the seriousness of the problem are dead wrong."
- United States General Accounting Office: "Many federal
agencies will not be able to renovate and fully test all of
their mission critical systems and may face major
disruptions in their operations...Year 2000-induced
failures of one or more mission critical systems may have a
severe impact on their ability to deliver critical
services. "
- IRS Commissioner Charles Rossotti: "If we don't fix the
century-date problem, we will have a situation scarier than
the average disaster movie you might see on a Sunday night.
Twenty-one months from now, there could be 90 million
taxpayers who won't get their refunds, and 95 percent of
the revenue stream of the United States could be
jeopardized. "
- Rick Cowles, Tava/Beck Industries, embedded systems
expert & consultant to power industry: "Observing the
potential Y2K catastrophe unfold is like watching the
'Titanic' being raked by an iceberg in agonizingly slow
motion. Then, only two questions remain: When will the
public be ordered to board the lifeboats? And how many
bodies will be left in the water when the stern goes down?
"
Mr. Hunt's conclusions in his Y2K position newsletter reveal seven major misconceptions:
__________________________________________________________ Misconception #1: Agriculture and Transportation.
"Logically, computers have nothing to do with growing wheat
or apples or chickens... Nor will supermarket trucks stop
running because of a computer problem... "
Mr. Hunt's statement above is actually "illogical".
Testimony before Congressional Agriculture and
Transportation committees reveals these two industries to
be heavily reliant on computerized technology. Further,
testimony reveals that Agriculture and Transportation were
among the last to get started on Y2K repairs. Also, both
Agriculture and Transportation are heavily dependent on the
Petroleum industry, which itself is way behind the Y2K
curve. See CBN's story on Y2K and the food supply chain.
__________________________________________________________
Misconception #2: Trust In "Big Business". "AT&T... [is]
not going to allow themselves to lose a dime because of
Y2K! "
I get this one all the time. "Big Business won't allow Y2K
to be a disaster." To me, this reveals a reliance on the
"god of technology". Frankly, I'm surprised that a man of
Dave Hunt's caliber has fallen for this one.
I saw this firsthand at Hiller. Management wants ROI:
Return On Investment for every computing dollar they spend.
I've seen many reports from computer professionals about
how they have tried for years to get funding from
management for Y2K repairs, only to be told "we'll worry
about that later, we want something that will make us money
now." Bottom-Line: Y2K fixes don't generate profit. And the
cost in the U.S. alone is about $600 BILLION. AT&T, and
other "industrial giants who are in this for the money" (to
quote Mr. Hunt) have delayed until it is too late for many
of them precisely because they were "in it for the money".
__________________________________________________________
Misconception #3: They've Done This Before. "Computer
failures are nothing new... Surely most, if not all, of the
Y2K glitches... will be... dealt with relatively quickly...
"
NO WE HAVEN'T DONE THIS BEFORE! These computer failures are
indeed "new". Never before has a computer failure
threatened every industry and government agency and
organization all at the same time. This creates "domino
effects" among the critical interdependencies structured in
our modern computer systems. A failure in one industry
threatens others who may be struggling to get their fixes
done.
Mr. Hunt says "Surely most, if not all, of the Y2K
glitches... will be... dealt with relatively quickly. " How
can they be "dealt with relatively quickly" if everyone's
trying to fix them at the same time, as systems keel over
one-by-one after the New Year?
__________________________________________________________
Misconception #4: Social Security as "Poster-Boy". "[July,
'98] the Social Security Admin. was already more than 90%
ready... "
On the surface it sounds great. "90% ready". But what Mr.
Hunt isn't reporting here is that the Social Security
Administration (SSA) started their Y2K fixes way back in
1991. Now if SSA has taken SEVEN YEARS to fix 90%, when
will the IRS, which started in 1997 and has three times the
code to fix, be done? SSA is not an example of success. SSA
is evidence that the rest are dangerously behind.
__________________________________________________________
Misconception #5: Windowing as a "Silver Bullet". "For
those companies unable to complete full Y2K compliance,
there are viable alternatives... [such as] windowing... "
Mr. Hunt completely misses the point on "Windowing". I've
done windowing. It's the technique used by virtually all
Y2K teams. It is NOT a fallback for "those companies unable
to complete full Y2K compliance", as Mr. Hunt says.
With windowing, you tell the computer to assume any date
before 2030 (not 2050 as Hunt reports) is a "2000" date,
and any date after 2029 is a "1900" date. But you still
have to look at EVERY line of computer code to apply
windowing. The only thing this technique saves is
reformatting huge databases to 8-digit dates. Any company
waiting till the last minute to see if they make it, and
then trusting in windowing as a quick fix, will be out of
business.
__________________________________________________________
Misconception #6: Trust The U.S. Army. "[Army Materiel
Command's] Hoffman said the Army's systems were about 80%
Y2K compliant... "
The U.S. Army is part of a huge mess at the Department of
Defense (DoD). In testimony before the House of
Representatives on August 13, 1998, General Accounting
Office Director Joel C. Willemssen revealed, "almost three
quarters of DoD's mission-critical systems reported as
compliant in November 1997 had not been certified as
compliant... "
Put plainly, the Department of Defense LIED about 3/4 of
it's supposedly "fixed" systems. DoD admitted their
"oversight", re-classified the falsified systems as
"non-Y2K-compliant", and started over. Keep in mind that
DoD has more computer code to fix than all other Federal
agencies combined: 30 BILLION lines of code. Congressman
Horn's Y2K Subcommittee continutes to give DoD failing
grades on its Y2K preparations.
__________________________________________________________
Misconception #7: FAA's Administrator Will Fly on 01/01/00.
"[FAA's] Jane Garvey... announced personal plans to fly
commercially... shortly after midnight January 1, 2000. "
The New York Times reports: "IBM has notified FAA that the
40 mainframe computers used for a portion of the
air-traffic control system are guaranteed not to operate
correctly on Jan 1, 2000. "
The FAA ignored IBM's warnings, and has attempted to fix
the ancient computers themselves. Dave Hunt even reports
that, "only one-third of the FAA's critical computer
systems had been fixed as of late September, 1998. " Yet
FAA's Jane Garvey, trusting in the god of technology,
arrogantly declares her plans to fly on the Big Day. She
may be overruled by the insurance companies:
Reuters News Service (11/3/98) reports, "The insurance
industry effectively holds the veto over whether airlines
operate on January 1 2000, not arguments about whether
their computer systems are immune to infection by the Year
2000 bug. "
*************
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