Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Hume who wrote (10422)	11/26/1998 5:05:00 PM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

hi alan, you make some very good points. i'm not sure how big a player mu is going to be though. sure intel is buying some insurance with their big offer, to be certain they do have a sufficient supply of rdram. but intel only pays if mu produces. mu won't play unless it is profitable. they are almost a wounded duck and can't afford to be in a losing game. with the newly announced immediate production increases by samsung, and the other korean and japanese dram mfrs, it looks to me like they are intent on filling the 1999 rdram production shortfall of about 140,000,000 modules before mu can get setup next summer. in other words samsung et al are going to try get to market with product faster and in the quantities intel needs, thereby shutting mu out.(saving their own skins and intel $500,000,000) it is a win win win for us. especially if rdram is produced in 1999 in quantities 5 X higher than previously anticipated. regarding earnings. i have tried to quantify in simple formulas, numbers provided in most recent press releases from a variety of companies and other legitimate news orgs, all of which were posted here by other thread members. the numbers are what they are. there is not a single assumption from me in them. i have no quarrel with your assertion that they may be high. i could also argue that they may be quite conservative(i am) and end up being low. time will tell. thanks for your insights. unclewest

To: Alan Hume who wrote (10422)	11/28/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 93625

Alan, >>>1) I suspect that RDRAM is shaping up to take a much larger slice of the desktop market than Rambus calculated. Hence matching this up with a further 50% from other applications may prove difficult. Agreed! Estimating non-PC revenue is difficult and a crap shoot. 2) Assuming that Andy Grove is a VERY astute businessman, at the time he was investing 500 mil in INTEL, guaranteeing RMBS the Kings Schilling (I love that phrase), it would seem logical in my eyes that he would have negotiated a very favourable licensing fee for MU while he was about it. (You scratch my back, i'll scratch yours) Craig Barret stated that INTC will not receive any favorable pricing from MU on RDRAM. When pressed on whether he knew if MU had "re"negotiated the RMBS agreement during the INTC/MU investment, he said you need to talk to RMBS or MU about that. I am not saying this happened nor was Barret saying this happened, but we do not know if RMBS gave concessions recently to MU in order to "get rid of" SLDRAM, so to speak. Just a thought. MileHigh