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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DownSouth who wrote (12631)	11/26/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

>>This is a long term game, (enterprise computing). MSFT doesn't give up easily. (Remember Windows 2.0 and 3.0?) MSFT continues to erode the Unix and NOVL server base, though not as fast as the most enthusiastic MSFT bulls believed. IMO, MSFT will eventually dominate the enterprise computing market. It may be another 2-5 years, but there has been no reversal of their encroachment. MSFT has the will and the resources to continue to improve NT until it overcomes its weaknesses. As far as directory services are concerned, same story. >> DownSouth:: Microsoft's window is closing FAST. They can't afford another 2-5 years to get this right. The market is moving lightening fast right now. Companies have to get their enterprises internet-fired TODAY. Swithching gears, not one person has commented on what I posted a fw days ago. Here it goes again....... From a person who is smack thick in the middle of this revolution that is fast leaving Microsoft on an island of its own making. Gates has burned ALL bridges to every island out there. The world is moving away from Windows toward Java, Jini and internet-fired mega servers. That's MY bet. Your argument takes NONE of this into account. What you are saying above is a lot like someone during WWII saying because they have the world's biggest and the best bombing fleet they will win the war. Then came the Atom bomb........ Again, I'd like for you to comment on this....... ========================= This is where I am going with my thinking and the slide of Microsoft is the demonstration that today large software cannot be built for the commercial world. Once this technical fact is recognized, you have to look at the best way to do what classical economics mandates: division of labor to create something large and stable. The best way to divide up a problem and solve it, is to portion it to the entities that do that one thing better than anyone else. Instead, Microsoft wants to produce commercial quality software including: mission critical operating systems (something big) embedded o/s (something small) databases (big and small) word processors spreadsheets directory services proxy servers firewalls transaction middleware clustering disk management . . . No matter your market cap and cash on hand, you could never create all of this stuff AND weave it together in a way that the commercial world wants to run its business. You simply could not assemble (culturally, pragmatically) the best in each of these domains to execute this in the grand manner Gates is trying to design for. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN, IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED in the history of economics. ======================== So DownSouth, Gates may have a warehouse full of firebombs and more bombers than all the rest of the competition, but these are old weapons and he's already on trial for these tactics. His company could get broken up by the DOJ, but more likely is that forces in the industry will encourage Gates to make this move. Comment?

To: DownSouth who wrote (12631)	11/27/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

This is a long term game, (enterprise computing). MSFT doesn't give up easily. (Remember Windows 2.0 and 3.0?) MSFT continues to erode the Unix and NOVL server base, though not as fast as the most enthusiastic MSFT bulls believed. IMO, MSFT will eventually dominate the enterprise computing market. It may be another 2-5 years, but there has been no reversal of their encroachment. MSFT has the will and the resources to continue to improve NT until it overcomes its weaknesses. As far as directory services are concerned, same story. This has been a paid political messages brought to you by the "Save the MSFT Server marketshare" campaign! OK Downsouth, now explain how this all is "MSFT will take over the world" can be acomplished with Linix picking up steam on Unix side and NOVL now holding its marketshare and actually picking up new customers again with NetWare5. And as for Directory Services. Dream On Buddy! Active Directory will grab some marketshare but it will never dominate anything. MSFT is WAY too late in the market to take it over. And with open LDAP protocol standards, people can live with the DS that does the most work for them and still interact with other DS systems. Then there is the Industry that has clearly ganged up on MSFT and are bound and determined to put MSFT back in its place. Sorry, DownSouth but that is simply too much for even your precious MSFT to hold back. Then there is the very lasting delays in NT5. While the bloating NT5 continues to sit in the starters block, all its competitors are out with their OS code and are winning back customer base. With Java becoming more mature and open-standards finally becoming a serious issue, IT customers are finally seeing the NT bag starting to deflate. By the time MSFT ever gets NT5 out the door, its competitors will be well on the way to releasing their next generation of OS code - putting MSFT even further behind. IT customers are not stupid - they will realize that MSFT will never catch up on Enterprise solutions. Then there is the strong likelihood of dramatic organizational change which may be forced upon it by the DOJ. That would further throw wrenches into the MSFT machinery. Add this to the fact that Mr. Gates and company know they are being very closely watched for anti-trust violations on a daily basis. They will not be able to easily abuse their monopoly on the desktop like the industry all knows they have been doing for years. MSFT has bitten of much more than it can chew! As the "Birth of the Internet" PBS show mentioned, MSFT is now where IBM was in the early 80's. They are too big & arrogant, and they will be put in their place very shortly. So DownSouth, please tell me IN THE LONG TERM how MSFT will accomplish these goals with the above listed hurdles in its way? We are talking long term objectives now. Or are you only wishing on a star and putting all your investment hopes on MR. Gates' past abilities (much of them illegal or unethical)? Toy