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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (34520)	11/27/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: gregor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hiam: I know what you are saying...i.e HK 3rd qtr down 7%.This is shocking. But as a precautionary statement central banks the world over have cut interest rates rather dramatically and are pumping up liquidity to extraordinary levels. Dont look for stagflation because productivity levels are nothing short of dramatic for this stage of an expansion. So where do I feel this will all end ? Not sure but I intend to look for further increases in productivity. The internet alone will give some sectors such as retailing, and information services a big boost in productivity. Software will eventually make the personal secretary obsolete. The medical field with get a big boost from all types of advances. A cure for a disease will give a 100 % productivity increase if a certain condition does not have to be treated anymore. Hey ! I've never been more upbeat and I'm getting old. SE asia did not start the mess we are in. The highest incomes in this country belong to asian americans. IMO the blame can be attributed to Japan's outdated and inefficient economic system ( back in the 80's )and the lending practices of banks in Japan and the aftermath of those practices when lending parameters were tightened in the 90's not to mention the fiscal practices of Japans government. But the gool ole USA went through a very similar situation where our basic industries were not competitive on the world markets. We had to learn the hard way and so will the rest of the world including SE asia. I feel too much emphasis is being placed on the liquidity bubble of equities for the simple reason that the euphoria might be justified. Americans are generating our own prosperity and thank God it's about time. We have 95 % of the populace working and we are pretty much doing it within the parameters of increasing productivity, and a fair days pay for a days work. Most households have two wage earners. If therefore, because the argument is made that financial assets have inflated and that the economy is in jeopardy because these assets will suddenly collapse then my response will be that we really never had it to begin with. If the rest of the world is helping us inflate our assets and because of that we spend a little of it then so be it. There has to be the fundamental reasons the assets are inflating in value, and there have to be the negative responses of why for example we are not chasing after Japanese securities right now. The bottom line is that I feel Americans have been working harder and smarter than the rest of the world and in the prosperity thereof we shall all partake and I feel continue to partake of for the forseeable future. I know you could sit back 5000 yards and blow a lot of holes in my arguments with a shotgun but I just feel we Americans should all give ourselves a little credit sometimes........gregor