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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (8784)	11/27/1998 1:00:00 PM
From: MythMan	Respond to of 42834

>>all systems are go for a waterfall decline of 20-25% before the year closes.<< Interesting. It ain't starting today. MM

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (8784)	11/27/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

MMV, thanks for the reply. I'll address some of the points and see where we go. 8) I believe the Feds intervened because of the liquidity problems brought on in part by the foreign meltdown that caused the panic selling. You are wrong about Bob's model. He has been listing Money Supply, specifically M2 and M3, in his newsletter since I have been following it/him. Rather simple: Demand can not increase for any product unless there are funds to support the demand. Stocks go up because there is increased demand and money to fuel it. I expect that the general trend is for this to continue. Internut mania. I have a whole discussion on this called :Internuts and Tulips" at suite101.com if you want my opinion on the whole matter. I heard the craze called "a bunch of internet day traders playing chicken with each other". If you are my age, were born in the US and remember the old James Dean movies (slightly before my time, but the image is valid) they have this one where two guys race their cars towards a cliff and the winner is the last one to bail before the car goes off the cliff. The real losers are the ones that get stuck in the car and go off the cliff. I figure I make plenty in the market without participating in the internut frenzy so I let others play chicken. Present high valuations: I have been selling or taking profits but I am still pretty much fully invested. Hard to imagine how I just sold my original cost basis in IBM and still was left with 80% of my holdings! Now I have some more cash to wait for another great buy as when I doubled my IBM position when it hit $24 (split adjusted). It is great to see a small, 1% investment grow to over 5% of total equities. Dropping back to 4% when it hits 5% is sure a nice way to "sell high" and raise cash for more bargains! if we revisit the 7000's or even 8000's again, I want to have some money. I actually feel the market is better valued under 9000, but "stocks tend to fluctuate" so why not make some money while they do? 8) gobble gobble Kirk out