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To: DiViT who wrote (2159)11/27/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Steve Reinhardt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3493
 
Yes, the competitor's stock price has been on the rise, but I am also not sure
it is because of DVD, in fact I am sure it is not because of the popularity of
DVD but of something else...And all the shorts are busying covering their positions
and it looks like First Boston's goal of $33 can be achieved without too much trouble,
by that time, all the big investors will come back to short it.

I don't agree with you about the DVD/SVCD/VCD. The SVCD will be more popular than
DVD because of the cost differentials and because of the availability of the titles.
Therefore in China, for the next three years, at least, it will be SVCD replacing VCD while
DVD remains bought by the 0.3% super rich as a toy.

DVD still has a big drawback compared with VHS, it can't record. The recordable DVD
is simply out of reach for $299 consumers. Therefore DVD sales has been disappointing, even
in the United States. That's why it is a hype so far. I don't see how ESS need to pay any more
attention than they have now to DVD sales. Rather, the SVCD sales will be important for
ESS and I think they are doing a good job and their competitors are paying all the attention
they can. This is the situation now.