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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C Hudson who wrote (23494)	11/27/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

C. Hudson: Of one thing I am sure. If gold moves up or down, the technical will tell long before the fundamentals are obvious. Live long and prosper, Little joe

To: C Hudson who wrote (23494)	11/27/1998 3:37:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116796

"From reading your posts though over a few months, it is crystal clear that you have taken a very strong stance of being extremely bearish on gold. It is my opinion, but I believe you LOOK for anything bearish to support your strong conviction." Not true at all: Tuesday, Jul 21 1998 10:52AM ET #reply-5261901 "I concur, now is a good time to dispose of stocks {espeially none golds} not sure if it's time to buy GOLD {or gold stocks} just yet. But it won't kill you. I think all those charts can be attributed to US FED M2, pumping." Monday, Jul 27 1998 7:10AM E #reply-5322060 "PS: Just so you don't think I hate GOLD, I predict that GOLD will start an incline around NOV {but is still to early to be confident} Still see gold going much lower in the short time. {maybe 265 or less}" As we all know the XAU hit a low near Aug 30, and it did start to appreciate shortly after that. Not quite NOV, but Oct is close {no awards for being close.} It was early. And was due to Japan-carry rate. #reply-5452144 BUT: Monday, Jul 13 1998 2:11AM ET #reply-5174867 "Monetarist View: Where do you get the idea that inflation is a positive for gold, and a negative for the USD? They two do not neccesarily go hand in hand. You need to take in account growth as well. And in a world of deflation, a small growth rate may push the USD stronger, and the POG down." This is what is occurring NOW. You can't change deflation into inflation over night, no matter how many Billions you pump into the system. By pumping M2 you create lower rates, and thus help create an enviroment of growth. It'll take months before inflation is built into the system, and with Greenspan in charge, it may not occur. So if growth out paces inflation/deflation than MAYBE the US Dollar is in an excelerated growth. And with Growth, GOLD dies. I have no rose coloured glasses to look through. I believe the Y2K is nothing more than a marketing ploy {I still have copies of EVERY computer program that I've written that is still in use.} The Euro will result in more GOLD sale reguardless of how many gold coins they want to make. But I take my stance on being a bear gold NOW because it is both fundamentally and technically over valued. And as many of the technicals I look at suggest {some being US Dollar index, M2, interest rate} Gold {even as the price decreases} become more over valued daily. I suspect a snap in the next few days will occurr.