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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (5352)	11/28/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78659

Dear Paul Senior, >>Crimi, you post here every month about your website that says -repeatedly and only - that stocks are overvalued. Sell,sell, sell -- the end is near. You never here give a recommendation to buy anything. NOW you come on here, totally whining on about a position you have---It's just sooooo undervalued and being stolen right out from you by controlling stockholders. Poor, poor Crimi. Crimi, you are shameless, hypocritical and despicable.<< I regret that your choice of words is very unprofessional and discourteous considering I offer a great deal of my time and work for free at my web page. I am trying to help people you know. However, I will address your point so that I can clarify my view for others. My view as expressed on my web page is that "AGGREGATE MARKET LEVELS" are extremely high and that the U.S. is in a financial asset bubble related to excess credit and speculation. My monthly view is limited to that very general opinion about the market and what is going on in the economy. I have NO opinion at all about where the market will be heading next! This is a view that is shared by many value investors who still have long positions for one reason or the other. It does not mean that there aren't individual stocks that represent bargain value. Just very few (in my view) among the DOW and S&P500 components that I am talking about in my monthly market views. On several occasions I said that I was doing some buying during a downturn. I also said that small caps offered excellent value during the recent decline. I do not give specific recommendations for either long or short positions at my page. I consider that a value added service and a position of responsibility that I don't wish to have. However, as part of certain discussions I have mentioned SBARROs as a position I hold and why I like it. I have also mentioned others. Just do a search on Silicon Investor. My occasional purchases do not mean that I have stopped thinking the U.S. is a bubble. I do. In fact, so does at least one former Fed governor as expressed in Barrons this week. That same article also hints that Alan Greenspan thinks the U.S. is in a financial asset bubble too. So do many other experienced investors, economists, publications etc.. Within that view, I can still find very occasional values, as in the case of Sbarros. But generally, I believe exactly what I say. These are dangerous times. I suspect that the majority of investors do not quite grasp the extent of the possible overvaluation. These are the highest AGGREGATE MULTIPLES OF ONE OF THE HIGHEST RETURNS ON EQUITY EVER. That means we not only face a potential decline of PE ratios, but also a decline in profitability at some point. From a 30 PE to the mean of 15 is a 50% drop. Add to that a 20% drop in profitability and you get the picture. The present aggregate market is a bet on a combination that has never been sustained in history. Not a good bet in my view if you are a "value guy". Would you prefer that I was like most Wall St. types and told you that this is a "New Era" and you should rush head first into the excess and hope it really is different this time? It is that exact attitude that provoked my Web Page to begin with. I am trying to provide a perspective that is not influenced by vested interest, bonuses, career pressure, and GREED etc... I am sorry that you find honestly as opposed to salesmanhip so offensive. I am only trying to help people! My personal portfolio is very defensive. I have stated that repeatedly. In fact it's the most defensive it has ever been in my life. However, I have no idea when or if THE END is coming. No one does!! The prices are very high and so are the risks IN GENERAL!!! That's it! On the rare occasions that I find a bargain within my circle of comfort, I buy it and so should you. You just won't get any specific recommendations from me at this time. Lastly, as to Sbarros, the family is trying to steal the company from the other shareholders. All small investors should be concerned about that possibility. Not just shareholders in Sbarro like myself. I still stand to make a profit from my purchase. Others may not be so fortunate. Wayne Crimi Value Investor Workshop members.aol.com