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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (12672)	11/27/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Toy, I admit I have not analyzed like you have. Thank You. For now, I was just going on a gut feeling than an analysis of IBM's business. I am new to SI (just joined today). Over time, I let you know if I agree with you once I have done more research. As far as MSFT is concerned, I am confident that their stock price will continue to rise. If one is objective, I do think that they will conclude that MSFT is too dominant. I agree, it is not healthy for the industry in the long run. Like I said, at this point it is GREAT stock to make money in. I had a lot of success this past year with way out of the money call options. As a result I can't be that objective. I will leave that to you. Paul

To: ToySoldier who wrote (12672)	11/27/1998 10:55:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Think in terms of market cap; per yahoo, Msft is $319.3B versus $156.9B for IBM. In fact, Microsoft has the largest cap of any US company (#2 GE is $301.7B). One of the (few) things about Microsoft that concerns me is their cap size. If msft goes above 160 7/8, its market cap will break $400B; I think the market won't let them break that barrier easily. Frank

To: ToySoldier who wrote (12672)	11/27/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: Exacctnt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Toy, You really don't want to get started comparing Microsoft's financial results with IBM's do you? Although IBM is a much larger company than Microsoft, i.e. revenues and earnings. Its growth rate for both for the 3rd quarter and year-to-date is under 10%. A careful look at the income statement and its EPS will unveil earnings that are affected by both a lower tax rate and fewer outstanding shares of stock. The stock buyback is lowering shares outstanding, but is slowly building up debt, which now amounts to $28.5 billion. Yes, a bright spot in IBM's result is their service sector. A comparison with Microsoft growth rates in both revenues and earnings will show that it is IBM who is the emperor with no clothes. Regards, Bob

To: ToySoldier who wrote (12672)	11/28/1998 10:18:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Respond to of 74651

In fact, it is HWP and SUNW that are most worried about MSFT. It is the UNIX server market that feels threatened. IBM has redefined itself to avoid the platform holy wars. They will do well regardless who who dominates those areas of business.

To: ToySoldier who wrote (12672)	11/30/1998 1:09:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Toy - I may have to wade in here to clear the air after this fog of IBM hype. Let's take a look at some of your assertions - In fact, their Global Services Division makes more than 1/3 of all IBM revenues. Sounds good until you look at how much of that revenue stream is captive maintenance for the legacy products. Where the S390 and AS400 go, GSD will follow. As an independent multivendor support business, GSD is pretty second rate. . Then there is the Mid-range systems like AS-400 (which is show huge increases in sales) Really? Last time I looked, AS400 was bleeding off at a pretty good rate, decreasing by 7% annually. AS400 is huge allright - it is a huge lumbering target that Sun, HP and CPQ will be carving up for years to come. Turkey dinner 365 days a year!!! the AIX - RS6000 line which is second only to Sun in Marketshare What market is this? One that does not include HP apparently. BTW I have it from a pretty reliable source that IBM is going to phase out AIX as soon as they can manage a replacement, they have determined that it will not get critical mass in the developer community and that they would do better to get behind another Unix, probably Solaris. Just a rumor??? Then there is there IBM's software revenue which make more than 2 times the revenue than MSFT (hard to believe huh)! Not just hard to believe, impossible. MSFT passed IBM in SW revenue in 2Q98. It made the trade press here in the US, maybe they don't send that kind of news to Canada. Then there is IBM's networking hardware revenue Yea, another captive business. Take out the legacy sales and IBM's network business is pretty much invisible. Then there is their PC desktop and server revenue I don't think you want to go there - #2 to #3 to #4 to #5, IBM is the PC player the others are taking share from. Then there is their Computer chip technology which controls many of the vehicles and other devices we live with every day. Yea, I'm sure there's a PowerPC somewhere in my car... do you really think IBM is a bit worried about MSFT. No, they are doing all of these strange deals with Sun and SCO because they are generally benevolent. They put billions into OS/2 because they really thought the banking industry needed a good reliable OS for small branch operations, no other reason. You sure don't have much objectivity when it comes to IBM. I am impressed that Gerstner has managed to keep IBM from falling apart, but it's a little like 'night of the living dead' - these rotting corpses of legacy businesses that refuse to die, despite arms and legs falling off. Let's hear it for the G5, mainframes forever. Sure kicked Hitachi's butt. Gerstner is a wizard at working the numbers, and working the street. But IBM is looking less and less like a contender to me, and more and more like a target.