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Gold/Mining/Energy : KERM'S KORNER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (13904)11/28/1998 8:17:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman  Respond to of 15196
 
IN THE NEWS / Imperial Oil Potential Winner In Mobil-Exxon Deal

Canadian Press

Stalwart blue-chip Imperial Oil Ltd. will be transformed into a dynamic, high-growth operation if parent Exxon Corp. merges with fellow petroleum titan Mobil Corp., analysts say.

Toronto-based Imperial, Canada's largest oil producer, wasn't saying much Friday as Mobil and Exxon confirmed they are in merger talks to create the world's largest international energy concern.

The two sides would not elaborate except to say that a merger deal was not guaranteed.

"The only information we have is a confirmation that there are talks going on, the nature of which we don't know," said Pius Rolheiser, a spokesman for Imperial in Calgary.

"I know that Imperial employees are very interested in the reports of the talks, but beyond that there's not a lot of real information around."

Rolheiser refused to speculate on how a merger would impact Imperial, a publicly traded company of which Exxon owns nearly 70 per cent. Mobil Oil Canada is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mobil Corp. of Fairfax, Va.

But analysts have agreed that Imperial -- criticized in recent years as a slumbering giant content to buy back shares and pay dividends rather than grow at the wellhead -- will become one of Canada's most agile integrated producers if it were to take over Mobil's Canadian operations.

Despite strong oil prices in recent years, 1998 notwithstanding, Imperial was cutting back production, producing just 315,000 barrel-of-oil equivalent a day last year compared with 345,000 in 1993, said John Clarke, an oil analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities in Toronto.

Starting in 1995, Imperial has spent $3 billion buying back 146 million shares not held by Exxon in an effort to keep its stock price up, Clarke said.

"They could have spent that money developing other projects and doing production, or whatever," Clarke said.

Instead, Imperial has opted to keep its balance sheet clean and reap the rewards of a three per cent dividend yield.

"It's a blue-chip holding that doesn't have dynamic growth, but throws off some income in the form of dividends and is set to maintain its value," he said. "That could well change."

Clarke said it would cost Imperial something in the vicinity of $4 billion to buy out Mobil's Canadian operations -- mostly in Eastern Canada -- if that was the way a deal between the two parent companies ended up being structured.

But with strong cash flow and low debt, Imperial would be able to finance the acquisition easily and end up with a complimentary portfolio of assets with strong growth potential, Clarke said.

"It would be able to finance the acquisition of Mobil Oil Canada at some $4 billion-plus quite easily, and it then has a portfolio of opportunities which are growing."

First and foremost is the massive Sable Island natural gas project, of which Mobil owns about 51 per cent and Imperial about nine per cent. A majority stake in Sable Island would be a plum for any oil company right now, considering crude prices are testing 12-year lows and aren't expected to bounce back anytime soon.

There's also heavy oil, a significant hedge for oil producers because of the relatively low differential right now between traditional light sweet crude and the synthentic products produced with the thick, tarry goo that oozes from the oilsands of northern Alberta.

"There are two bright spots in the industry right now; one is natural gas and the other is the heavy oil part of the business," said Robert Plexman, an Imperial analyst with CIBC Wood Gundy Inc. in Toronto.

"Those heavy oil price differentials have narrowed, and being one of the largest heavy oil-producing companies in the country, they're benefiting. It's helping to offset the impact of some of these prices."

Then there's crude oil, the price of which closed Friday at $11.18 US per barrel of West Texas Intermediate -- a far cry from the boom-time highs of more than $20 a barrel.

Mobil has significant holdings in other East Coast projects -- a 33 per cent stake in the Hibernia offshore project and 22 per cent in a similar but less advanced offshore deposit, Terra Nova -- that would give Imperial a badly needed presence in Eastern Canada.

And while oil assets may not seem overly attractive given the price of crude, all companies in the Canadian oilpatch have to look at the rough spots as opportunities to grow in anticipation of higher prices, Clarke said.

"The growth opportunities that they have and the rising cash flow mean if they're buying it at the bottom or close to the bottom of the market, you have to assume that oil prices will move up at some point," Clarke said.

"It's a cyclical business; this is just a long down cycle."



To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (13904)11/28/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman  Respond to of 15196
 
IN THE NEWS / Exxon-Mobil Would Be No. 1 Oil Company, But Won't Squeeze Pump Prices

If Exxon and Mobil merge to form the world's biggest oil company, don't expect higher prices at the pump.

Even a combination of the two biggest U.S. oil and gas companies wouldn't have the power to reverse slumping prices across North America caused by a worldwide oil glut. But while drivers may not be affected, an Exxon-Mobil marriage could leave as many as 20,000 employees out of work as the companies seek to slash costs, according to one analyst.

Exxon Corp. and Mobil Corp. announced Friday that they are in merger talks, confirming reports that surfaced this week. At a price near Mobil's current value of $67 billion US, it would be the richest merger ever.

A combined Exxon-Mobil would vault past Royal Dutch-Shell Group of Cos. as the world's biggest energy company, with 47,000 gas stations and operations in more than 100 countries. It also would surpass General Motors Corp. as the largest U.S. company of any kind, with combined revenue of $203 billion US last year.

"The last thing either party would have considered is the effect on the consumer, but as it happens it's pretty benign," said Alan Marshall, an energy analyst with Robert Fleming Securities in London.

Worldwide oil prices are hovering near 12-year lows, hammered by a plentiful global supply and an Asian economic crisis that has crippled demand from that region. The U.S. Energy Department predicts that prices will remain depressed well into the next decade.

Even as the industry's biggest player, a combined Exxon-Mobil would only account for four per cent of world oil production capacity, according to George Gaspar, an analyst with Robert W. Baird and Co. in Milwaukee, Wis.

In their short joint statement, Mobil and Exxon said they could not guarantee a deal would be reached and declined further comment. The talks are driven by a desire to boost profits by reducing expenses in a time of slumping oil markets.

Analysts predict thousands of layoffs from the companies' overlapping operations. Marshall projected cuts of up to 20,000 -- about 16 per cent of the companies' combined workforce.

Most of the cuts would come in the United States, followed by Asia, he said.

In Canada, Exxon owns Imperial Oil, the country's largest oil producer. Mobil owns Mobil Canada, a major player in the oil industry off the East Coast.

The merger would intensify consolidation in the energy industry that has quickened since British Petroleum announced its surprising $49 billion US takeover of Amoco Corp. in August. Oil stocks jumped Friday on confirmation of the Exxon-Mobil talks and anticipation of even more deals.

Mobil stock rose $7.62 -- nearly 10 per cent -- to close at $86 a share as the second most actively traded issue on the New York Stock Exchange. Exxon shares climbed $1.68 -- more than two per cent -- to $74.37 on the NYSE, the fourth most active.

Chevron Corp., Texaco Inc., Unocal Corp. and Atlantic Richfield Co. are among the major players likely to find merger partners, said Gaspar.

Exxon, based in Irving, Tex., ranks only behind Royal Dutch-Shell among the world's oil companies. Mobil, based Fairfax, Va., is the second-largest U.S. oil and gas group after Exxon and the fourth-largest in the world.

The companies are children of Standard Oil Trust, John D. Rockefeller's oil monopoly that was broken up by the U.S. government in 1911. Exxon is the former Standard Oil of New Jersey, while Mobil was once Standard Oil of New York.

But a reunion of the two does not necessarily pose significant antitrust concerns, said Robert Burka, a partner at Washington office law firm Foley and Lardner and a former official in the Federal Trade Commission's bureau of competition.

"The merged entity will have nothing like the market power or the ability to injure consumers that its predecessor did," Burka said.



To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (13904)11/28/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman  Respond to of 15196
 
IN THE NEWS / Tentacles of merged energy giant span the globe from
Sable Island to Singapore

$182-billion in sales: Worldwide network of 28,000 gas stations

The Financial Post

With their anticipated merger announcement early next week, oil giants Exxon Corp.
and Mobil Corp. will create the largest energy firm in the world.

Indeed, with combined 1997 sales of $182.4-billion (all figures in U.S. dollars), the
new firm will be the world's largest company of any description, displacing General
Motors Corp. (1997 sales of $178.2-billion) from the number one spot it has held for
generations.

With an estimated market capitalization of $237.7-billion, Exxon-Mobil will be twice
the size of oilpatch rival, Royal Dutch/Shell Group ($101.3 billion). And, with
combined profits of $11.8-billion, the new entity's earnings will be more than five times
that of the total profits of Canada's top 25 oil and gas producers.

Of greater importance, though, are implications for other players in the global
oilpatch.

The surprise union of the world's second- and fourth-largest oil companies creates an
exploration juggernaut with unrivaled financial and engineering resources for bidding on
the world's few remaining untapped reserves of significant size, or "elephants," as
they're known in the industry.

That goal, and a desire to cut costs by achieving economies of scale, was the motive
behind the August announcement that British Petroleum PLC was snapping up
Chicago-based Amoco Corp. in a $55-billion deal.

On their own, Exxon, based in Irving, Tex., and Mobil, headquartered in Fairfax,
Va., are already formidable operators.

Exxon's Lee Raymond, 59, whose five-year tenure as CEO has been marked by an
emphasis on cost control, has rewarded investors with three successive years of
record profits and a three-year total return to shareholders of 120%, despite a climate
of low world oil prices. He's done that mostly by keeping operating costs at 1990
levels.

But Mr. Raymond's overtly cautious style belies an aggressive growth strategy,
evident even before rumours of the Mobil coupling began to swirl through the stock
market.

Exxon produces or explores for oil and gas in about 30 countries.

It has scored impressive recent finds in the British and Norwegian sectors of the
North Sea, and has been an early participant in developing offshore reserves in West
Africa, Indonesia and Sakhalin Island in Russia.

Among it peers in the top ranks of world oil producers, Exxon has shown an
unparalleled ability to shield itself from volatility in well-head prices, thanks to the the
stable profits of its burgeoning "downstream" assets. These include 31 refineries in 17
countries, and a retail network that sells an astonishing 65 million gallons of motor oil
to eight million customers every day. It is expanding its gas station network to
incorporate Tiger Express convenience stores from Spain to Shanghai.

Exxon's chemical company, one of the world's largest with 1997 sales of $1.4-billion,
operates a factory in Sarnia, Ont. that churns out polyethylene, a basic ingredient in
thousands of consumer and industrial products, while its refineries in Europe and Asia
are leaders in high-octane aviation fuels and diesel and racing-car fuels.

In Asia, Exxon is one of the largest private operators of electric power plants: It has a
60% stake in Hong Kong power plants that supply power to Kowloon and the New
Territories.

Together, Exxon and Mobil will operate one of the world largest retail networks, with
more than 28,400 gas stations in the U.S. alone, plus outlets operated by affiliates such
as Exxon's 70%-owned Imperial Oil Ltd., Canada's largest integrated oil company.

While less than half Exxon's size in revenues, Mobil usefully strengthens Exxon's
reserve base. While Exxon brags that for the past four years it has found new reserves
to replace those it has depleted, the replacement rate has never exceeded 120% of
current production. Mobil also brings 20 refineries worldwide, and operates a sizable
petrochemical division.

The two firms are rivals in retailing and in bidding contests for exploration plays. But
they have much in common.

They were each spun off from John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil Trust by the U.S.
Supreme Court in a landmark 1911 antitrust decision. Since 1947, Exxon and Mobil
have been linked as partners in the Arabian American Oil Co. (Aramco), the
consortium responsible for the largest share of Middle East oil production.

Both companies are energy pioneers in Canada. Imperial Oil brought in the world's
first major postwar oil discovery, at Leduc, Alta., in 1947, and is currently expanding
its 25%-owned Syncrude heavy oil operations in Alberta -- a province whose oil
reserves exceed those of the Middle East.

Mobil Oil Canada, based in Calgary, has helped spearhead the development of oil
and gas production off the East Coast, and recently committed to spend an additional
$4-billion over the next five years in the Hibernia, Terra Nova and Sable Island
projects.

It's likely that Exxon and Mobil, with a combined workforce of 122,700, will seek
efficiencies by eliminating duplication of efforts.

Both companies operate aromatics plants in Singapore, for instance. They have each
been early investors in Vietnam; and both firms anxiously await a resolution to political
problems that have delayed construction of a pipeline to carry reserves that each firm
is licensed to produce in remote Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea.

Similarly, both companies have learned hard lessons about the folly of diversification.

In the 1980s, Exxon shed non-core assets in computers, electrical goods and
weigh-scales, and Mobil dumped its ill-fated investments in ailing retailer Montgomery
Ward and packaging giant Container Corp.

Neither firm is a stranger to controversy, either. Exxon is still recovering from the
public relations disaster following the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 1989; and Mobil is a
major oil producer in Nigeria, which makes it a target for critics of civil-rights abuses
by the government and armed forces of that country.

That hasn't tempered Mobil's stout defence of free-enterprise principles in ads that
have been appearing on the op-ed page of The New York Times for more than two
decades.

Exxon has only recently engaged in similar tactics, vociferously opposing last
December's Kyoto accord calling for reductions in fossil fuel use.

In a more high-profile effort, Exxon has sponsored efforts to build up the worldwide
population of the tiger, its corporate mascot since 1953.

Mobil only recently revived Pegasus, its 67-year-old flying red horse symbol representing speed and power -- whose post-merger fate is uncertain.




To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (13904)11/28/1998 9:44:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman  Respond to of 15196
 
IN THE NEWS / Imperial, Mobil will be key players in oilpatch

Powerful impact: Heavy oil, deep gas and offshore likely to be
main focus

The Financial Post

CALGARY -- A merger of Exxon Corp. and Mobil Corp. would accelerate
Imperial Oil's retreat from conventional light oil and natural gas -- the staples that
allowed it to light up Alberta's economy as brightly as it did the night skies near
Edmonton with its Leduc discovery 51 years ago.

Last year, Imperial Oil Ltd., Exxon's 70%-owned Canadian subsidiary, dumped its
Leduc unit, the field south of Edmonton where it struck oil in 1947 and rescued
Alberta's floundering oil industry. Imperial also sold another key unit, the Judy Creek
field northwest of Edmonton.

Industry experts and participants say these moves don't indicate Exxon-Mobil would
give up on Canada. Deep natural gas, oilsands and heavy oil, the East Coast and, over
the very long term, the High Arctic will continue to engage the interest of even the
biggest global players--Exxon-Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and the merged
British Petroleum PLC and Amoco Corp.

"Imperial is doing exactly the things it should be doing for a company its size," said
J.C. Anderson, chief executive of Anderson Exploration Ltd. a major natural gas
producer. "They're the past masters at heavy oil. And they're looking to get bigger in
deep gas."

To remain profitable for the long term, Imperial-Mobil would have to pursue a
different strategy from that of senior Canadian-controlled producers such as Talisman
Energy Inc., Canadian Occidental Petroleum Ltd. and Ranger Oil Ltd., which see
profits being generated primarily abroad.

"Most Canadian producers participate in Canada's East Coast by viewing it from
35,000 feet while they fly to better opportunities in Angola, Libya, Sudan and Yemen,"
said Ian Doig, publisher of Doig's Digest, an industry newsletter.

The Canadian subsidiaries of multinationals, by contrast, must make a go of domestic
plays or face disposition.

Imperial's shift from conventional light oil and shallow Prairie natural gas plays does
not startle industry experts.

"The big companies have known, literally since the '60s the limitations of conventional
oil in the western Canada sedimentary basin," said Aubrey Kerr, author of four books
on the oil industry, including Leduc.

"Imperial believes the remaining undiscovered conventional oil potential in Western
Canada does not justify continued exploration," the company says bluntly in its Web
site.

Instead, multinationals that remain active in Canada will focus on four main areas.
First, the oilsands, huge even by world standards, whose reserve life is measured in
decades or even centuries.

Exploiting the oilsands and other heavy oil deposits profitably requires massive
investment and steady nerves. Just one of the gigantic, 200-tonne trucks now in use,
for example, costs more than the entire annual exploration budget of some of the
oilpatch's smaller players.

And, noted Mr. Kerr, "These multibillion-dollar plants catch fire from time to time." A
single accident would wipe out a smaller operator.

Entirely a cost play, profit here will be generated by companies that can win the
battles of technology and operations.

These are two of the biggest strengths of Imperial, already senior partner in the
Syncrude Canada Ltd. oilsands, and operator of a huge heavy oil operation at Cold
Lake.

In natural gas, the action is shifting to deeper, richer plays in the foothills of the Rocky
Mountains.

"A company with a strong position in Canadian natural gas can be a core element of
even the largest global enterprise," said Vince Rodych, vice-president of public affairs
with Amoco Canada Petroleum Co.

"The disadvantages that Canada suffered due to transportation constraints are being
lifted, making Canadian gas production even more attractive."

Imperial has assembled a promising position in the Monkman Pass area of northeast
B.C., and is quietly sinking about one dozen deep gas wells a year.

Most big foreign operators will also want a piece of the East Coast, and this is where
Mobil will make its major Canadian contribution to the merged entity.

After decades of expensive exploration and regulatory battles, both the Hibernia field
off Newfoundland and the Mobil-led Sable Island natural gas field off Nova Scotia are
under way.

Finally, all major players will continue to keep an eye on the North, which has
enormous natural gas reserves and significant oil potential.

Imperial is not only one of the few companies actually producing "north of 60," at
Norman Wells, but has large land holdings and exploration experience in the
Mackenzie River Delta.