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To: Carl R. who wrote (41115)	11/28/1998 9:29:00 AM
From: sandstuff	Respond to of 53903

Carl R...well said, totally agree <eom>

To: Carl R. who wrote (41115)	11/28/1998 12:24:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

>>There is a shortage of chips now due to strong demand.<< this iw wrong. w-r-o-n-g. there is a shortage due to manipulations on the supply side by MAJOR competitors in the industry. take away said holdbacks and shutdowns and supply still creams demand even during the busiest time of year for the dram boys. even with the holdbacks, demand is slightly above supply meaning that during this "shortage" the price has moved up to MAYBE breakeven. the last shortage had mu making, what $2-3 a q? i FULLY expect a MASSIVE inventory correction after xmas - probably feb or so. i think everyone is planning on a blockbuster xmas and it doesn't show up. cpq is adding a direct channel that requires parts for inventory. this temporarily boosts demand but will also increase boxmaker supply. IF we have a box inventory problem IN THE FUTURE and the fabs start cranking then i'd submit that 1998 didn't come close to how bad some qs in 1999 could be. for now, though, the mantra is the trend is your friend and all those who can't do any analysis follow it. the current trend is up in both dram price and the stock. it is also positive for earnings, though they'll still post a loss during this so called "shortage." q1 99 will be an EXCTREMELY important q, imho.