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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (23522)	11/28/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116753

Corporations Buy Into Stock Surge Friday, 27 November 1998 N E W Y O R K (AP) IF IT was getting hard to believe that stocks can be worth so much now when they worth so little just last month, corporate America is still buying into it. Buying companies, that is, and paying with their stock rather than cash. It's not so surprising, of course, when a company thinks its stock is as good as currency. But when you sell a company and take payment in shares of another company, it would stand to reason that you think the stock you are getting is worth at least as much as Wall Street is paying for them. Keeping in mind that many stocks have now surged 30, 40 and 50 percent in less than two months, this week's spurt of merger activity would seem to be quite a vote of confidence in the market's lightning-quick rebound. The timing couldn't have been better. Much like Citicorp and Travelers Group energized the market back in the spring with their merger plan, Monday's barrage of takeover talk sparked a rally in a market that had been looking rather sluggish after an incredible six-week rebound. There were at least eight major deals announced and confirmation of talks between Deutsche Bank and Bankers Trust and between America Online and Netscape Communications, a deal that was sealed by Tuesday. The Dow Jones industrial average surged 214 points on Monday to set a new record - 9,374.27 - for the first time in four months along with the Standard & Poor's 500. "It's certainly a more positive endorsement of the market's levels when do get more deals done for stock than cash," said Bob Dickey, managing director of technical analysis at Dain Rauscher Wessels in Minneapolis. "Cash is what you take when you're pessimistic. Stock is what you take when you're optimistic." There are, of course, concerns that all the pomp and circumstance is a convenient excuse to ignore a still shake outlook for the global economy and corporate profits. "I think corporate managers here and abroad are going to be playing this takeover consolidation game, partially because they can use their stock as currency at these re-elevated prices," said Robert Stovall, president of Stovall/Twenty-First Advisers. "These companies may have growth concerns for 1999. They're trying to take attention away from the bottom line, and focus it on top-line potential," said Stovall. "If they have sluggish earnings, they can say 'we're digesting the takeover.' That is the strategy going into 1999." As the week wound down, the merger fires still were being stoked as Exxon and Mobil confirmed that they, too, were considering joining forces. On Friday, the Dow rose 18.80 to 9,333.08, closing the week 173.53 higher, but about 40 points below Monday's record. The Standard & Poor's 500 topped its Monday high, rising 5.46 to 1,192.33. The S&P 500 gained 28.78 for the week, and now holds a 1998 gain of 22.9 percent for the year. The technology-rich Nasdaq composite index returned to record terrain on Friday, rising 31.23 to 2,016.44, up 88.23 for the week, and beating the July 20 record of 2,014.50. Having soared 50 percent since the market rebound began on Oct. 8, the Nasdaq composite is now up 28.4 percent for the year. In other trading Friday, the New York Stock Exchange composite index rose 1.96 to 583.00, up 10.92 for the week; the American Stock Exchange composite index rose 4.58 to 673.92, down 1.09 for the week; and the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 2.77 to 402.09, up 7.80 for the week. The Wilshire 5000 index - which represents the combined market value of all NYSE, American and Nasdaq issues - ended the week at $10.900 trillion, up $268.04 billion from last week. A year ago, the index stood at $9.142 trillion.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (23522)	11/28/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: PaulM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

IMO, everything the govt does creates winners and losers in a zero sum game. That's because neither Greenspan nor Clinton nor Congress concern themselves with building homes, making cars, growing food or designing microchips. So it seems to me every govt action is made in the context of real wealth remaining fixed in the short run. A weaker dollar benefits exporters at the expense of importers and savers. Govt spending to "stimulate" the economy benefits industries whose products the market otherwise wouldn't want, at the expense of taxpayers. My long winded point is: the interest rate cuts had one impact on leveraged speculators and the stock market, and ultimately a very different impact on, for example, fixed income recipients. Official employment figures--if they are to be believed--virtually did not change at all during the market drop. So who do you think Greenspan was trying to save? Have you ever seen the FED fret over a wave of downsizing? B, as for Europe, if the dollar isn't supported by foreigners, it will collapse. The gold short position wouldn't survive such an event.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (23522)	11/28/1998 1:41:00 PM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Dogzilla, From memory, many things seemed more expensive when I went through school in the mid'80's. Gas was as much as 1.43 a gallon (though it was only 79.9 at one point), most food was more expensive then, except for bread and butter, but I make my own bread now and it's only 25 cents a pound loaf. Laundry soap was outrageous compared to now. Breakfast cereals too--you never would have seen Grapenuts or Post Raisin Bran, the larger boxes, sold 2 for $4 at Pamida or IGA, but this is frequent now. Of course, school itself was much cheaper. A local airport was hiring for United Express. The benefits were good, but the pay was only $6.10 starting. Figure that one out Morgy. The papers are screaming with these type of high pressure/low pay jobs. My sister is an accountant and time and time again she will tell stories of how good workers in management will be demoted during some management shuffle or robbed of vacation time because certain help quit at the wrong time. Once she asked a boss why they held back a certain benefit for an employee and the response was something like are you crazy--that would cost me more. Yet the employee quit and was replaced with another who also quit causing a good deal of hassle. I've seen it time and time again where employers insult their good employees over what is really a minor sum of money and the worker leaves. As for your bubble question, bubbles need economic growth to continue and economic growth demands metals. I think metals are fairly safe at these depressed levels. --Alan

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (23522)	11/28/1998 11:14:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116753

Sunday November 29, 1998 War of the generations breaks out The old get a better deal from the state than the young. Richard Thomas reports on a battle that affects us all Forget class war. Forget the war of the sexes. A new war is in the making, one between young and old, with scarce state resources as the battle prize. It's a generation war, and it starts this week. Friday sees the unveiling of the first ever "generational accounts" for the United Kingdom, showing that older generations are getting a better deal from the Government than the young. The research, carried out for the Treasury and the Bank of England, will be controversial. In other countries, the conflict ignited by the realisation that some age groups are subsidising others has been intense. Generational PR battles have broken out. "In most Western countries there has been a systematic appropriation of the resources of the next generation," says Laurence Kotlikoff, pioneer of generational accounting and co-author of this week's research. "At some point somebody has to expose it. That may be controverisal." Controversial is an understatement. Militant American youth groups burn their pension cards and demonstrate for cuts in old-age benefits. In Germany the Grey Panthers fight the cause for the elderly. Holland has a political party specifically voicing the case for older people. France had to appoint a minister for "solidarity between generations" to try and lower the temperature after their accounts were published. Softly-spoken and bespectacled, Kotlikoff looks like an unlikely provocateur for generational conflict. Appearances are deceptive: His language borrows from the Marxist lexicon. He uses words such as "confiscate" and "plunder". He says that failing to act to ensure inter-generational balance is the equivalent of "continuing to feed rat poison to your kids". Strong stuff - and bound to provoke strong reactions. "This is one of those exercises that maybe shouldn't be undertaken because it provokes unnecessary conflict," says Julia Neuberger, chief executive of the King's Fund, who is taking part in the Millennium Debate of the Age, a series of events designed to draw attention to the implications of an ageing society. "The younger generation has a moral obligation to older people. It is not just a fiscal question. Do you want to set the young against the old? The answer is no." But supporters of generational accounts say fierce debate about the obligations of one age group to another is better than no debate at all. "If we are serious about policies which are sustainable in the long-term, we have to look at the inter-generational issue," says Kotlikoff. "We cannot just look at the current deficit between spending and revenue - that approach is bankrupt. We have to look ahead." Generational accounts in the US, Italy, Norway and Sweden have shown that young workers will have to pay £120,000 more in taxes than they receive in state benefits and services, while today's retirees are receiving £60,000 more than they put in. Car stickers saying "Busy Spending Our Children's Inheritance" have a broader resonance than just the individual families - they are, according to Kotlikoff, a statement of fiscal fact. Friday's publications by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research will show a similar pattern for the UK, with today's young being squeezed between high health payments to the elderly and the need to provide for their own retirement. While pension payments account for a large part of the generation gap in some countries, in the UK it is health care which is the biggest factor. Two-thirds of health spending goes on those who are within two years of their death, the study will show. An ageing population means more pressure on health resources, which means a heavier burden on today's taxpayers. The Government is writing cheques which today's - and tomorrow's - taxpayers will have to honour. These facts have to be brought to public and political attention for any action to result, according to the backers of the approach. Age rage has been most intense in the US - where the typical small town has a ramshackle school and a shiny new hospital - with demonstration and counter-demonstration on the steps of Congress. Kotlikoff says the ferocity of the debate has prompted politicians to act, albeit little and late. "You have to force the issue," he says - not least because it is much easier to placate today's voters than tomorrow's taxpayers. "I don't know if Clinton is the kind of politician who can really face these hard questions. But I think your Tony Blair may be. We'll have to see." reports.guardian.co.uk