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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (26746)	11/28/1998 2:38:00 PM
From: Duker	Respond to of 70976

Well articulated. --Duker

To: Math Junkie who wrote (26746)	11/29/1998 4:28:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

and if it doesn't happen?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (26746)	11/29/1998 6:51:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Is Japan still the key to a semi-equip recovery? If so, then: Japan's Economy Continues To Stumble, Latest Data Show By BRIAN FOWLER Dow Jones Newswires November 30, 1998 TOKYO -- Figures released Friday revealed that Japan's economy continued to stagger in October, as flagging demand at home and abroad forced manufacturers to cut output to reduce inventories. The latest signs of deterioration came despite evidence that a 16.65 trillion yen ($136.8 billion) fiscal-stimulus package pushed into law last summer began to filter through the economy in September, underscoring the limited impact spending on public-works projects is having. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry said industrial production shrank 1.2% in October from September and is expected to fall an additional 1.5% in November. Output also fell 8% before adjustment for seasonal factors, marking the 12th straight month of year-to-year declines. Analysts said Japanese output will probably fall by about 0.5% between October and December compared with the previous quarter, representing the fifth straight quarter without growth. Inventories Fell Although inventories fell 1% from September levels, further adjustments will be needed before a recovery in output can get under way, said Peter Morgan, economist at HSBC Securities Japan Ltd. The ministry said sales at department stores and supermarkets dropped 4.8% from last year to 1.89 trillion yen, adjusted for changes in the number of stores. October's decline marked the sixth consecutive month of falls and came on top of a 2.3% year-to-year decline recorded last year. Producers and consumers tightened their belts in October despite signs that public-works spending is perking up. The Construction Ministry reported earlier this month that spending on projects begun in September rose 37% from a year earlier. Economists said that although the upturn in public investment is likely to continue through the end of the fiscal year, the net impact will probably do little more than provide a floor for the economy because the spending doesn't represent sustainable demand. Also, hopes that public investment might boost consumption by creating more wage earners are misplaced because the construction sector is already saturated with workers, they said. Matthew Poggi, an economist at Lehman Brothers, said construction workers account for more than 10% of Japan's total work force. Construction Jobs Down Labor data released by the Management and Coordination showed that employment in the construction industry fell 6.5% in October from a year earlier. Also, job offers in the industry fell 8.7% from last year. Overall, conditions in Japan's labor market have reached their worst state in the postwar era. The jobless rate remained at a record-high 4.3% in October, while the offers-to-seekers ratio dipped to a new record low 0.48, indicating there are only 48 jobs for every 100 seekers. Slackening demand for workers has already begun to affect wages, as manufacturers slash overtime payments and trim bonus packages. Worries about job and wage security, in turn, are weighing on consumer demand, putting downward pressure on prices. Reflecting that trend, the Management and Coordination Agency reported that consumer prices in Tokyo -- an early indicator of nationwide price trends -- remained flat to negative in November. Before adjustment for seasonal factors, prices fell 0.1% from October and rose 1% from a year earlier, but the core figure -- excluding volatile prices for fresh fruit and vegetables -- was flat from October and fell 0.2% from last year. Vehicle exports remained sluggish in October, falling 7.9% from a year earlier -- the sixth straight monthly drop. Because of falling overseas demand for autos, the ministry said production of transportation equipment is likely to fall 8.9% in November from the previous month and decline 1.5% in December, acting as a drag on overall output.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (26746)	11/29/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Richard: Agreed. However, the pattern might likely be the reverse / mirror image of '98, something like this: Month Semi Equip Shipments January 98 845 February 98 900 March 98 950 April 98 1,011 May 98 1,112 June 98 1,266 July 98 1,361 August 98 1,416 September 98 1,370 October 98 1,369 November 99 1,458 December 99 1,650 Did I dampen your exuberance? <ggg> BP