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Technology Stocks : Mattson Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anaxagoras who wrote (966)	11/28/1998 7:20:00 PM
From: John Stewart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3661

Anaxagoras; No, I don't think they have abandoned anything, just throttled back a bit, like everyone else. But my count, announced + rumored pilot fabs for 300mm in 1999 are: Siemans/Motorola Samsung Hitachi Intel With 3 other possible's at last count. IMHO, MTSN will place both strip and CVD tools in 3 of the 4. I think things will heat up by mid-99. By the way, if Mattson had 20% of strip in '97 (not 10%, check '97 vs '97), and they are clearly increasing market share, and if we assume 25% share in 2000, that's $170M in strip alone in 2000. Add say $50M for others (RTP, CVD, EPI, lite etch), for a total of $220M, assume price is 2X sales, and you have a 5X jump in stock price in the next 2 years. This would, by the way, only bring us to the '95 high. I don't think any of those #'s are on the high side. again JMHO. Take Care, John Stewart

To: Anaxagoras who wrote (966)	11/29/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: Anaxagoras	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3661

One of the things that MTSN continuously trumpets is their ability to compete with respect to COO, or cost of ownership. The problem is, as they explicitly recognize in their filings, that such COO of a specific product is a bit hard to quantify, and not at all standard. I haven't found much in terms of specifics. But I did enjoy this from an old press release back in '96 by the newly appointed (at that time) veep of sales and marketing: <<Mattson is unique because there is no Mattson product coming on the market without at least a 2X improvement in Cost of Ownership. A persuasive argument for any customer and for me!">> BTW, they really brought on a heck of new management back in early '96; you can tell they were really excited about their momentum before the slump. Anaxagoras (still catching up on the past few years fo MTSN's history)