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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (34572)	11/28/1998 7:23:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

TC, Or does anyone know of anyone who CARES the US market is more overvalued than Japan at it's peak near 40,000? Bill

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (34572)	11/28/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Jay k.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Not sure about valuation, but I don't think so. I looked at the chart of japan run-up and we are not even close to that level yet... If US goes up 20-30% for next 5-10 years then we would match the chart closely. B/regards

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (34572)	11/28/1998 11:39:00 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

market cap/GDP: USA - 150% Japan-89 - 130% p/e in Japan were in the 80-s, much worse than here (is it?). We also don't have the real estate bubble of that magnitude. GDP growth was quite a bit higher - 8% or more in Japan. Also Yen strengthened against the dollar long term quite a bit - it used to be 500Y=$, now 100Y=$.

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (34572)	11/28/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 94695

Thomas, in the late 80's the Japanese were buying 1959 Cadillac Eldorado convertibles (the year with the enormous fins) for about $125,000. They are much cheaper now. No problem. Vitas

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (34572)	11/28/1998 11:51:00 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

The Japanese have achieved an economic miracle, comparing where they were in 1945 to where they were in 1989. From 1968 to 1989. TOPIX (Tokio Stock Exchange index) appreciated from 100 to 2900, Yen also appreciated quite a bit (2x?), so if you invested blindly in Japanese stocks in those days, you would get a return of 50x in dollar terms in 20 years, not bad.

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (34572)	12/3/1998 9:05:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 94695

I think everyone, including Abby Cohen, knows that. Perhaps the reason for a bigger bubble in US is that, US market is bubbling in company with Europe, unlike Japan, which bubbled in isolation. These bubbles are connected with a hose called global capital flows. They are trying to readjust while one inflates too much too fast. Of course, occasionally significant leaks occurred when the pipes from SEA and Russias were cut-off. Watch for the hose from Brazil -g-