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To: Thean who wrote (5645)	11/29/1998 1:04:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14427

yes, "blame" it on me (G). As always, feel free to disregard anything I post. I could be wrong.... been wrong before. gold... been doing the big nothing for the past 3 weeks (as a normal and healthy bull mkt tends to do) those w/ patience will do wonderfully in this sector over the next few years. I'm sure many were impatient w/ GE in 1989 when it was $10 and were wondering why it wasn't at $20 yet (G) Drillers are headed for the bottom of the sea. I still plan on buying NE around 3 or 5 later in '99. NKE... joining the drillers very soon. banks... wouldn't touch 'em w/ Slider's money. airlines... remind of the drillers this time last yr, same stubborn bullishness, but they are slipping away just the same. tech... who knows when that drunken party will end, but when the internuts go... tech goes w/ 'em. DELL looks especially weak. Wouldn't it be a shocker if we ended in a double top fashion... surprising everyone (even the bears)? For everyone knows that bull mkts do not traditionally end in double tops.... yes wouldn't it be perverse justice that even those that know this mkt is headed for a fall are playing the long side for the trip to 10,000 and get caught in the trap? nah... probably not (G) where's my monkey w/ his buy button..... One of my favorite sentiment indicators is screaming SELL... over the past 8 months, I see increasing numbers of different brokers advertising on regular TV. At first it was only Sat afternoons during golf, now it is ALL THE TIME. I can't watch anything w/out seeing Peter Lynch's ugly face, or some clown telling me how he doubled his money on E-Schwab. when things do start falling part, those playing the speculative long side best SELL and ask questions later. The decline should be fast. do not get caught standing around waiting for the bounce to new highs... there won't be one. some things to consider before "drinking and buying": can we say "the bulls have bought?" decisionpoint.com A/D line unconfirming recent rise decisionpoint.com fewer highs on this top than the last decisionpoint.com when the dollar breaks this s-t uptrend you'll KNOW it is over, but the stock mkt should breakdown BEFORE that. decisionpoint.com all IMO of course as always. -Lucretius

To: Thean who wrote (5645)	11/29/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Hi all. I thought about what I wrote, and nothing has changed. But I'd like to point out that I said I didn't see a crash coming soon. I suppose that depends on what "soon" means. I didn't say that it couldn't/wouldn't happen. With all of the turmoil in the world and the obvious and hidden agendas of who-knows-what, one week Japan is great, the next week not getting better, Brazil, Venezuela, Iraq, the whole Middle East, Korea, oil, dollar, euro, etc. We've been living with this now for a year. And LT, your scenerio is so plausible that I expected it to happen. And, looming in the back of my mind, I still do. But I, and that is where my problem was/is, let the fear freeze me up like a deer in headlights. I guess that's where experience helps when choosing the market as a way to make money. One has to go with the flow, don't fight the tape, and all of the other cliches' that abound. But I'm learning. I don't have a blind eye to all of the problems still out there, but trading with caution. I did ok last week, not as aggressive as I might have been before. Thean, you are obviously right. We need a correction of 5% to 10%. And I expect/hope it comes soon. Studying the sector trends and other info provided thru P&F is illuminating. We all have our own methods and some are more adept at reading/using them than others. I think you are one of those people. I didn't mean to give the impression that all is right with the world and the market will go to 20,000 next year. (I can hear it now. LT saying "oh boy, everyone so bullish, the crash is coming") <ggg>. Thean, I think you said it best. Use caution, preserve capital and don't turn your back on the market. The bottom line is, I'm pissed cause I didn't jump into the internuts!!!!! <VBG> Take care, all.