To: Sonki who wrote (21673 ) 11/29/1998 4:54:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (1) | Respond to
The way NDX has propelled forward is a natural response to oversold market back on 8th Oct, I have been highlighting NDX or Nifty fifty as if there had to be any market sustainable move it had to come through NDX, it was this simple reasoning that we developed here a constant watch of this index and gave it extraordinary importance, if you look at breakout of NDX and try to interpolate this on composite and DOW it may be translated that if NDX is a harbinger of things to come we may have in composite and DOW a 8-9% still left from the breakout, I have that confirmation on composite now as for DOW the previous highs are still required to be taken out on two closing basis, I am also looking interestingly at my RUT 402 level and would like a big move from here in RUT atleast a second close above it, my SOX is also coming to an intermediate resistance at 326 are this goes on to 330 if these later two sectors are able to take out the resistances this tech based rally has room on the upside and my level of 1750 will be seen, however I have a gut feeling that the wideninng gap between MA's and market is not sustainable it has to retreat to its 20 days or even 50 days and I would think nothing better than settings we are about to have on political front and geographic uncertainities add to them the strong economic numbers and you have making of a good retracement, I would like as I am doing taking the profits off the table and preparing very deligently for thatr retracement, we are in this very tricky business of timing the market and it is never easy however going by what I have said if I see 1590 taken out I will suggest that one may aggressively buy puts and wait for that test of averages, I have been advising it all along but have also been rasing my trailing targets on NDX in a trending market to avoid whipsaw and wipe out this is the only way let market show you the way if it has to go higher let it go if it is going down let the supports break so far we have not seen any break of the support- we talked about 1520 we are 100 point highers we talked about 1555 we are 70 odd points higher- so where does that leave us? The conclusion is one dosen't go and buy puts like a fool and one dosen't keep predicting like a parrot for nine months out of 10 that market will 'down or anywhere' you make a strategy and you work on it - the way is to keep your SPZ trade levels as main indicators and get confirmation from suporting inidicators and keep changing those indicators as market is a fluid place you just cannot keep harping about one same index-- for me my old high of SPZ is the main yardstick if that breaks assoicated with 1590 and 9280 on two closing basis get ready for a reversal- this is how I have ridden a lot of trends and this how I have dismounted at the near tops many a times-- the inter-realtional test of levels on indexes and a total knowledge of global indexes is the key- this is how I don't end up predicting a sell off in Europe when we have the finest run in five days and this is how I know the reality from myth-- the Europe run up when that was being touted as a sell confirmed that knowing your markets and interrelational levels is so darn important, one thing is relationships and increasing importance of one index over other as market progresses is again not in common currency I feel cautious and prepared because the indicators are telling me to prepare and people are just overlooking my posts they will still call me a prema bull but within a bull trend I pick on intermediate retracememts also and my basis is known science known fundmanetals and known discussion that is very important for a trader to develop keep questioning your strategy -get out of a frame of mind if it is proving wrong - in actual trading the market is merciless and it iether makes you a disaster or a money maker the choice is yours- for me these levels are most important-- even my DDX is ar 205 very near my prediction of 215 however the fact remains if 330 is taken out you may see a rally which my shy even the 402 rally-- Best regards from the most beautiful town in the world- the gift of God to mankind - my lovely Paris..
