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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (18909)	11/29/1998 10:02:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

Economist website search tidbits -- after several minutes at their site, I think the article is either from 9/5/98 or 10/24/98. I used "china AND gdp growth" in their (advanced) search (and, a time span of 8/98 - 11/98) to get a short list of articles that included the above. (I am NOT going to copy the article(s) here, because I think The Economist deserves to have their "user agreement" honored). Jon.

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (18909)	11/29/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: lkj	Respond to of 152472

Jon, Thank you for the pointer. I truely hope that the Chinese leaders are smart enough to not to cheat themselves. But if they are, this is what happened during "The Great Leap" period. And that was the period that the Chinese economy took its biggest steps backward. Khan

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (18909)	11/29/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 152472

Jon, the China edition of the Economist was October 24th - 30th 1998 and the picture on the cover was a Chinese Junk with red sails and flag emblazoned going into a vortex in an ocean with the question, "Will China be next?" "An American Credit Crunch?" pages 16 and 37 was another front page item in the same edition. The last paragraph of the "Will China be next?" article is, ------------------------------------- "Lately, worries about China have focused on the will-they, won't-they question of devaluation, accompanied by fears that this would trigger a new financial panic in East Asia. Yet this is to miss the point. The real issues are whether China's growth is slowing or even grinding to a halt; whether the resulting unemployment will prompt political unrest, or a power struggle among the leadership; and then whether that will send China in a disturbingly nationalistic direction. The right bets, on current evidence? Yes, yes and probably." --------------------------------------------- China's growth will of course slow a little, but dropping from 8% or whatever to 6% is hardly a tragedy. Mostly it will involve a re-orientation from luxury items back to basics like buying cellphones and food. So just as in Korea and Japan, cellphone sales will carry on regardless. Or even accelerate as people have to spend less time on the golf course or on international travel and more time talking on the phone to earn a buck. Once the 3G arguments are resolved, probably in the next month or two, with cdma2000 being the converged standard and L M Ericsson allowed in, and once the People's Liberation Army ownership of cellphone networks and spectrum is resolved, then China will go gung ho for cdmaOne and cdma2000. They are wisely waiting until things are sorted out. They have even put the kibosh on GSM too until the sorting out is done. Will there be political unrest or a power struggle with or without any increase in unemployment? Of course not. China is going gangbusters. Just like Singapore a generation before under Lee Kuan Yew. These Zhu Rongli types are civilized. People like it. They will worry more about their ever increasing prosperity than some ideological battle the USA keeps fighting over Tienanmen Square rioters. While things are getting better so fast, they aren't going to quibble about whether they have the ultimate human destiny of democratic nirvana with full implementation of the United Nations declaration of human rights. Which is a real crock of rot if you take the trouble to read it; being more a declaration of what you are entitled to take from taxpayers than human rights. I heard that even in the sacred citadel of human holiness and happiness, from where heroes of freedom pour in their millions to rescue the hapless and helpless from the invading Hun, merely 45% of voters can be bothered turning out to see which person shall get to be Alpha Male Holding Cigar Rites for the next 4 years. AMHCR for the acronymic. Translated, that means China will stay stable! Will the false premise of their instability cause a disturbingly nationalistic direction? Well, they aren't unstable. But they are likely to become somewhat nationalistic in defence of their new found wealth. I wonder if they would have to be more nationalistic than Limtex to be disturbingly so. There doesn't need to be much nationalism, patriotism and flag waving before I start to get queasy and nervous. So I guess there are likely to be some disturbingly nationalistic Chinese attitudes. Check out the Chinese attitude to Taiwan for example. We should just give China the fingers and recognize Taiwan as a separate, independent, self-governing, full and proper member of the United Nations. If China wants to get their nose in a knot over it, bad luck for them. If they want to stick with GSM over it, let them do so. You don't get peace in our time by allowing bullies to rampage freely. People usually confuse their personal interests with national interests, so it is likely. But very normal. Most countries are nationalistic and the USA more than most. Little places try to be nationalistic but lack the grunt to upset the neighborhood over it. So, the conclusion. No, no and probably. China is going to be just fine. The billion people there will continue to enjoy an improving life. They will buy a billion cdmaOne and cdma2000 devices over the next 10 years. QUALCOMM will profit hugely. Mqurice PS: You can see the growth in China by looking at the Shanghai skyline, reading the Made in China labels on a lot of stuff in New Zealand, watching television and doing a bit of thinking. It is not fake.