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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Vector1 who wrote (6049)11/29/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: Biomaven  Respond to of 9719
 
V1,

What is your view on the radiation companies (NASI INIS) these days.

I keep an eye on NASI (and TGX - formerly THRX), but don't follow INIS. I originally shorted NASI near 30: Message 4969947
and, feeling particularly pleased with myself, covered in the low teens. Of course it subsequently went to close on 3, for what would have been an inverse 10-bagger if I had stayed short <G>.

The comment I made in that post about the seed business becoming a commodity business I feel still has validity, and is maybe not yet fully played out. However, the valuations are of course looking much more reasonable. My instinct would be to give them a few more quarters to see if there is going to be any further shakeout. The latest NASI acquisition looked interesting if it works (measurement of apoptosis for checking if cancer therapy is working).

Peter



To: Vector1 who wrote (6049)11/30/1998 3:06:00 AM
From: Rocketman  Respond to of 9719
 
NASI has plenty of cash, has started selling the brachiotherapy product and seeing profits from it, reacted well to its low stock price by doing a buyback, is expected to have a 4X increase in earnings next year, has just done a deal to bring more late phase products in house, and generally seem to have a nice little company going. I would not be averse to picking up some shares for the Model.

INIS looks like they are progressing along nicely. I think that ultimately this company is going to be a big cash cow. Making rads is no simple cheap thing to do, but INIS seems to be good at finding a cheap route to do it by buying up the abandoned fed project, leasing a Cyclotron from a university, etc.... Not a lot of cash in hand, but they seem to be good at working debt sources and such, so that doesn't concern me that much. Plus, they now have a revenue stream and "Revenues for the last quarter of 1998 increased substantially and will continue to dramatically increase during 1999,'' stated Dr. Ira Lon Morgan, Chairman and Treasurer of International Isotopes Inc." That seems like a pretty definitive forward looking statement. I wouldn't be averse to picking up some shares of INIS either.

As ugly a therapy as rads are, they aren't going away anytime soon. Plus, they have a lot of research demand. These guys are positioning themselves nicely to be a broad based supplier and contract manufacturer. I like it. They won't be dependent on any one product, but will be a service and supply producer. Seems like a good niche to be in. Plus, as far as I can tell in Yahoo, they are not followed by any analysts. My guess is that as they get there project completed and the products and revenues start to flow that the analysts will start to pick them up and drive up the price and institutional ownership. Also, these guys aren't timid about using the press, just look at the volume of press releases out of them. They definitely are into tooting their own horn, but they seem to be for significant developments. I wish INCY would work the press as well. For instance INCY keeps putting out more and more of their array products, but they never try to get any publicity on it. C'est la vie.

Rman