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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richie who wrote (37771)	11/29/1998 10:12:00 AM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Respond to of 97611

Richie...... hopefully, the scenario that I painted should eliminate the chance for a disappointment for me, unless of course, CPQ really fumbles the ball. I guess we could go back to the mid-20s, but I view that as remote. What is your guess for Q4 earnings??? El

To: Richie who wrote (37771)	11/29/1998 10:24:00 AM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

Elwood and Richie: In what would you invest now, if you were not invested in CPQ? If your answer is something other than CPQ, calculate the consequences of selling CPQ, including tax and commissions and make a decision. I know you know you should not get emotionally attached to a stock, just becaise you know so much about it, or because you have been with it a long time, or because you enjoy the camaraderie of the thread. On any hard-nose analysis, CPQ will give a good return from present levels over the next six months - even though it may go down before it goes up. Will it give a better return than something else? Obviously, it cannot offer the kind of returns associated with the more successful internet stocks or the kind of "penny stocks" touted by Jimbo. But with greater reward goes greater risk. Try becoming very familair with another stock or group of stocks so that your analysis of CPQ can be more detached. I have been in CPQ, this time round, for a much shorter period than either of you, and I feel it has dragged. So I can sympathise with you. if I thought it would fall back to 30, as you do, I would promptly sell my entire holding and get back in at 30. I would do that if I thought it was going to $31 1/2. So far it is holding firm in the $34 and I am trying to calculate its next move. I, too, assumed it would have started to move up strongly as of last week. Elwood, you say you are conservative. If I was as conservative in my expectations as you, I would not be in CPQ. It should double before then end of 1999 if normal valuations apply. Victor