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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (34590)	11/29/1998 4:49:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Shark, been following the CRB and if all is right with the world (as the stock market is telling us) why are the prices of commodities falling out of bed again? The CRB hit a declining peak in 3/24 a month in advance of the market peak. The CRB hit a peak on 7/1 and the stocks topped about 3 weeks later. The CRB hit a peak on 11/12 and we are coming on 3 weeks later. The pattern was a long narrowing indecision pattern (possibilly a failed inverse h&S pattern) that blew out of narrowing bbands. I expect the Sept. lows in the CRB are going to fall like knife thru butter. I think this is another divergence that should be paid attention too, as well as the flattened a/d line since 11/6 breadth peak. RUT, TRANS, BIX (s&p banking index) are all near or under their 200 dma. Banks again are not doing well despite low interest rates and the fed at their backs. bb

To: bearshark who wrote (34590)	11/30/1998 1:10:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bearshark; Avoid the oil service stocks, while there may be a few consolidations getting them right is hard, all in all Big Companies will cut back on spending, and drilling will take a back seat. There will be hype from time to time as money managers try to unwind, but the sector as a whole will continue on down. If you play oil stay with BIG caps and companies that pay a dividend. They brought this on by jacking up oil prices in 96, the cycle won't let up till Asia countries get on their feet and can afford to pay $18 a barrel, till then it will be tough, like China has made big moves towards using coal. ( something they have ) And oil poor countries have started cutting back in a lot of ways. Oil is the life blood, and when they jacked it up they helped set up a recession , it just takes time for the impact to work it's way through. The service companies ( most of them run a lot of debt ) and that will add to their problems. They are getting a reprieve with the lower interest rates but it won't be enough. You may play with the sector and get a winner from time to time, but all in all it's out of favor, and your more subject to get burned. Jim BTW Message 6533582