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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (12769)	11/29/1998 4:37:00 PM
From: Charles Tutt	Respond to of 74651

I think the really negative stuff will appear during cross-examination of the Microsoft witnesses. But that's just a hunch.

To: johnd who wrote (12769)	11/29/1998 5:01:00 PM
From: Sonki	Respond to of 74651

u make my life hard, i come up w. nubmers based on number of things and finally when i can not reason i just say gut feeling. i posted on intel threada intel should go to 116 (when intel was 90) it was hard to belive but it went to 115 7/8 and now resting. my TA friends told me 130 target, based on that i should sell my jan 115 right now but some how my gut feel sez we will go higher even though volume on friday was not impressive. first of all you have to throw out in past ...blah blah we have had 3 rate cuts. i do not know how to calculate pe multiples based on new rates and that is why all my taregets could be screwed up. when ever i make targets it's based on FY earning. i.e. jun99. but lately what has happened is that it runs up to that number quickly. which is scary. but this is cuz WE FORGET TO ACCOUNT FOR rate cuts. now that i said forget the past, it's important. what is important is when it was PE of 71 what was the forward pe at that time? the other great thing that works for msft is this: i looked at the recent stable price and take the % of dip it took and add that to that % to recent stable price. (110-90 = 20) 110+20 =130. (short term target) longer term (june 99 w/out ratecuts) : 120 (prev.hi) -90 =30. 120+30=150. avrg of 130 and 150 brought me to 140. and being scared of round nubmers i said 139. also 2.79*50 = 139.50 current june2000 earning estimates. so i can see it's a fair price 50 forward pe of next yr's earning. since FY ends in june. ofcourse if we get split all this is useless exercise and we fly...so relax & enjoy the ride.