To: Gunnar  who wrote (285 ) 11/30/1998 12:27:00 PM From: Gunnar     Read Replies (1)  | Respond to    of 486  
 Any copper price rally seen taking time INTERVIEW - By James Regan Wednesday November 25, 3:58 am Eastern Timebiz.yahoo.com  SYDNEY, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Copper faces a year or more of trading under US$1 a pound before the world market swings into deficit, underpinning a rise in prices, GTN Copper Corp chief executive Ross Bhappu said on Wednesday. ''On the supply side, you are seeing a lot of production that is coming on stream up to 2000,'' Bhappu told Reuters. Copper fetches around US$0.72 a pound in international markets. The metal last traded above $1/lb in August 1997. ''After 2000, there are not a whole lot of projects on board ... These large copper projects typically take five to six years to get going,'' Bhappu said. Denver-based GTN operates a demonstration plant in Sydney that employs its Intec technology to process copper without smelting. Bhappu said growth in global copper demand would continue at around two-three percent a year into the next decade. Bhappu said a number of new projects slated to begin operating in the next year or so were being designed to capture an anticipated upturn in the market. Included in the start-up projects is the 550,000-tonnes-a-year Batu Hijau copper project under development by 45 percent owner Newmont Nusa Tenggara, an Indonesian subsidiary of Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM - news). The mine, located on Sumbawa island, is expected to yield an average of 270,000 tonnes of copper over a 20-year mine life. On a less grand scale, other mining companies, including some big U.S. producers, which reduced output in response to lower prices are poised to reactivate idled production, Bhappu said. In January, several North American copper producers announced plans to cut production, including Phelps Dodge Corp (NYSE:PD - news), which slashed output by around 35 million lbs a year. Cyprus Amax Minerals Co (NYSE:CYM - news), which cut 60 million lbs, and BHP Copper, a subsidiary of The Broken Hill Pty Co Ltd , which cut 151 million lbs. These came in conjunction with several announced postponements of mine start-ups as a result of the lower prices. ''A lot of the companies are positioning themselves where they scaled back but are still set up to kick that production back in very quickly,'' he said. This year and next, Western world copper production is forecast to outrun consumption, although the gap is narrowing, figures from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Research Economics show. The forecaster puts 1999 copper production at 13.95 million tonnes in 1999 against consumption of 13.20 million tonnes, leaving a surplus of 750,000 tonnes. LME broker Rudolf Wolff is more bullish, estimating a surplus of only around 550,000 tonnes Bhappu said Intec technology was designed to reduce costs and works best when processing so-called ''dirty concentrates'' - those containing high levels of impurities and less amenable to conventional smelting. GTN is in talks with several large copper miners, who have ''patches'' of dirty concentrates deposits, over introducing the technology, Bhappu said. It also has reached an agreement with AMT International Mining Corp (Toronto:AAI.TO - news) to develop a plant adjacent to the Copper Creek mine in Arizona. Operating costs using the Australian-developed process are estimated at around U$0.10/lb, well below the industry cost curve, he said.