To: CIMA who wrote (23597 ) 11/29/1998 8:31:00 PM From: Gabriela Neri Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Having just arrived from Caracas and having been visiting and living in the country (on and off)for more than 10 years, and having much knowledge about the country, its politics, its people, its economy, its food, its culture, its banks, its country clubs, and its context in world affairs, I seriously beg to differ with this analysis. The fate of mankind will not be affected by the electoral outcome in Venezuela. Rather, the intermediate term future of Venezuela will be affected, mas nada. I have rarely read such blown up out of proportioned fear mongering. Of course, on the surface, the situation has all the percieved ingredients of a great novel, such as can be expected when Columbia shares a common border and the major export accounts(oil) for the majority of the economic welfare of the country. But, it is a small country whose economy is almost irrelevant to the well being of the South American continent. Witness what occurred in Venezuela in 1994-1995 when it practically shut off its economic transactions with the outside world. What happened? Nada. Venezuela suffered and nobody hardly noticed. The US has strong vested interests, no doubt. But, this situation is easily managed by the US. If oil flows, it will be a non event outside of Venezuela. If oil flow is interrupted, then it will be dealt with accordingly, depending on why and how it occurred. And, talk about capital flight. Already, and for many, many years, the rich Venezuelans keep the majority of their money in dollars either in the US or Swiss banks (and even some German Banks). The country suffers, as a result of its inept politicians (and voting public who continue to elect them) a constant capital flight. So, this capital flight argument is more or less vacant. Venezuela is not a proxy for anything else except Venezuela. History has repeatedly demonstrated that. It lives almost as an island to itself, politically and economically. Why? Because it is so endowed with an abundance of natural resources that it can do anything it pleases, including moving backwards economically and politcally, and know that there is always a way out of any situation it will find itself in. MONEY. It has got lots of it-regardless of the current price of oil.
