Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34601)	11/30/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I agree from a philosophical standpoint, but as I was just saying on another thread, there appears to be nothing to stop the bulls. This rally has been tremendous and I cannot come up with a reason why it must stop now. I think that you could short one in here 80's to 90's and come back in four to six weeks and have made money. The troubling part is we could run another 100 SPX points before that happens for all I know. Damnest thing I have ever seen, yet my market experience is not quite as broad in terms of past history as it should be....so maybe this is just a walk in the park......

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34601)	11/30/1998 9:16:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 94695

Symbol Date Time Last Change High Low Volume $INX 11/27/98 13:50 1192.29 +5.42 1192.97 1186.83 N/A Hmmm.... Did you say 1192 or 1193? A call that accurate seems like divine inspiration. Today looks like a beginning of a pull back. I still disagree with your count, see my previous post, but I don't argue with facts. The fact is the market stalled at 1192. Applause ATG

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34601)	11/30/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, >>>>> The greatest probability i see for this 5th wave is that it terminates within a point or 2 of 1192 SPX. There's probably a 25 percent chance that we could go 4 to 7 points past that number, and a 10 percent chance that we go 8 to 10 points past. Anything beyond 10 points past, and we could be looking at the alternate scenario <<<<<< As you know that my analysis is more based on time than price targets. When you mention that anything beyond 10 points over 1192 would basicly negate your positon and would go to an alternate scenario, I feel that it is being called too tight. Just on pure statistics, being able to get within 1% is excellant, and within 2% is good and 3% is fair. I have some experience in statistics and that is the normal rule of thumb that I use. David, 12 points fudge factor on the SPX is only 1%. I guess it is human nature that we look to be perfect all the time, unfortunatley that is a STATISTICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. I feel that your prediction of 1192 is a great call, but to limit it with less than a 1% fudge factor is doing yourself an injustice, considering what you are basing it from. Great call. Seeya