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To: HG who wrote (15675)11/30/1998 3:50:00 PM
From: Mac S. Giballa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
$198, I got 11 minutes to hit my $190 prediction for today. Don't you hate me, I killed on the upside, now I'm killing on the downside.



To: HG who wrote (15675)12/1/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: Original Mad Dog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
Happy Girl,

A few quick thoughts on your post:

1. MSFT consolidation/legal environment -- addressed this some for you before I left (Wed. night) on the YHOO board. As for the YHOO/MSFT marriage being "made in heaven" ... "if only the Justice Dept. could see it that way," for whom would it be made in heaven? If the answer is only the companies' respective shareholders, then maybe the Justice Dept. shouldn't see it that way -- their role is to help the public by protecting the marketplace by ensuring that it is competitive. We consumers have already seen what kind of products result from monopolies or oligopolies -- from DOS (which I am convinced we would still be using some version of if not for the Mac) to the American cars of the 50's and 60's (and for GM, continuing until today).

If you mean the shareholders, I still think that MSFT shareholders have had a tendency to profit more from MSFT's alliances than the partners' shareholders.

On another point, did I say half a Billion market cap? I meant, of course, half a TRillion -- which is where YHOO would be before the end of the Year 2000 (even after yesterday's hiccup) if the last two years' rate of return on the stock continued for the next two years. Does anyone out there really believe that's going to happen? A large part of my reluctance here is a limited upside, large potential downside scenario. The "limited upside" part of it wasn't there so much at a 5 or 10 billion market cap, because hitting a double or triple from there is no big deal. But from here . . . well, a triple would catapult YHOO into the market cap stratosphere -- don't have a list around, but I think it would put YHOO in the top 50 or 75, wouldn't it? Does anyone really believe that a start-up is one of the 50 or 75 most valuable business entities in the country?

Good point about innovation fatigue -- but I suspect that we haven't begun to see all of the good ideas that YHOO the company can churn out. My objections all along have been to the behavior of YHOO the equity. That's one of the reasons I stick around this discussion -- I have rarely seen such a disconnect between stock price and my notions of value occur with a company that I respect as a business entity.

More later,

MAD DOG