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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jbe who wrote (32278)	11/30/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

<<S0 -- which way should I go? Sell my oil service stocks -- down more than 60% since I bought them -- and take a nice tax loss for '98, or keep them in my portfolio for my children to inherit>> Well, it is your money and I don't pretend to be some kind of expert or anything. But, I have seen situations like this before where the news is all bad and looks to continue forever, then in a few months one piece of news is latched on to and everything all of sudden looks better (I can see the headline now: Oil drillers make comeback on better than expected supply/demand numbers). When it comes to forecasts over more than a year you can only look to Micron Technology: In 1995, I think, analysts forecast something like $15 a share in earnings in 1998. Needless to say, it wasn't even close. Long range forecasts are as good as rolling the dice IMHO. Stocks move in short bursts. When the drillers move it will be fast.

To: jbe who wrote (32278)	11/30/1998 6:55:00 PM
From: Alski	Respond to of 95453

jbe, Since you asked, I think you should ALWAYS put your assets in the "best" place you can find. If you think there is a better place than the OSX, by all means take that tax loss you're entitled to. If, on the other hand, you think the OSX might be about to put in a triple bottom and bounce again like it did in Sep. and Oct. you might want to consider taking that tax loss anyway. You can still play that bounce if you want to play trader. There are so many good stocks in the OSX you can always rotate back in via your next favorite sector stocks and avoid the wash rule. Sort of like having your cake and eating it too. That would be my plan 'cept I have so little invested (now) that even with discount commissions it just wouldn't be worth it to switch. Of course, the real question is when and how high is the next "bounce". FWIW...Alski