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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: drsvelte who wrote (5689)	11/30/1998 8:42:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Doc, if I come down to your country for a visit, maybe you can take me for a Tradewinds field trip. About shorting OSX stocks. 1. Is it worth it? If one is not in, it is probably not worth the risk at this point especially if one only trades intraday. On any day at any time they can have a bounce, and we have seen plenty of examples before. Oil can spike for various reasons without warning, just like the internut bubble can burst at any given time. 2. For longer term as long as crude does not recover I think OSX can still go down. Many of them are getting close to either of their recent low's, which provide support or support lines. However, this time the fundies has really worsened. There were still plenty of hopes the last two times from OPEC, Iraqi wars etc. This time the number of possibly positive events for oil has declined substantially. The oil patch people are not looking forward to next spring. This winter is not helping at all. El Nina shapes up to be just like another El Nino. Remember LT tried to play weatherman last winter and staked his play on UNT citing his broker's report about the 180 degree change in weather severity a year after El Nino? Well, he was 180 degree right again! <GG> Net, I would not cover my short and will probably short more if they rebound before hitting or piercing below their supports. 3. MRL has one rig idle from the Dog's report. They only have 12 rigs total. Therefore, if they can't find work for their other rigs upon contract expiration and have to stack them, their bottom line can really erode fast. However, one can say the same to any of the offshore drillers right now. Therefore I would consider shorting them if they bounce up too irrationally. A note of caution however - MRL is a "perennial" takeover target so I would probably stay away from shorting them. But then, one can look at CDG and see how being taken over has benefited their stock price... 4. If I need to short a stock tomorrow and need to look for one tonight, I probably would not pick a driller. A recent high-flying tech stock may be better as a short. However, I still want to short GIFI bad.