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To: Billsig who wrote (752)	12/1/1998 1:32:00 AM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 2004

I'm not convinced INTC buying little iCAT will make a difference for OMKT. For one thing, the e-commerce market is going to be vast. I'm going to take the liberty of reposting THREE good reads (which address the issue of MARKET-SHARE) from November 28th on the Yahoo OMKT thread courtesy of a poster called AugustWest79, starting with message 9358: Early adopters by: AugustWest79 (36/M/Denver Colorado) 9358 of 10142 As discussed briefly yesterday, some were concerned about OMKT analyst rating and recent revenue growth or lack thereof. I have been in OMKT for nearly a year now and have done extensive research on them, in my opinion the drop in their performance lately has been due to a lag in e-commerce adoption bewteen the early adopter types that took the plunge right away and the more conservative mainstream companies. This resulted in flat sales the last couple of qtrs and OMKT's stock was punished severely for it - if not we'd be at $50 right now after having run to $29 in April. But IMO all that is about to change. Anywhere you look these days e-commerce is the rage. The mainstream companies will now be flocking to e-commerce in order to compete. Security issues which were once a big fear have been largely resolved. The economy slowing a bit is actually good for e-commerce uptake as companies seek ways to remain competitive or boost sales. It is clear now I believe that those Co's that don't foray into e-commerce will be left in the dust. If you follow such things industry forcast for amount of e-commerce in yr 2002 or whatever keep going up with each round of new numbers that comes out. And the stocks, wow if a company can invest say $500,000 to purchase/inplement and maintain an e-commerce presence and get a $200M boost to their market capitalization, what a way to increase shareholder value! What comapny wouldn't want to do this? All of this is increasingly coming to light right now. Accordingly, I look for OMKT CSP business in particular to begin increasing dramatically. This is one area that has been discussed at length on this board as a reason for their slowing down growth wise. I believe we have just seen a lag or gap between uptake by the early adopters and the mainstream companies. OMKT was very popular with the early adopter crowd hence their 30% market share in 1997 and blue chip list of clients. One look at their installed client base will tell you something is up with these guys. These firms would not being buying the stuff if it wasn't any good. Also now that many of the CSP's have been around for awhile, many of the companies they have signed up will coming up on 1 yr, and OMKT will be getting a revenue boost from the annual licensing fees. OMKT's recent layoffs show that they have heard the wakeup call and are taking the necessary steps to correct the situation. Apparantly they "built out" too fast thinking e-commerce was going to take off quicker than it has, but now they are trying to get leaner and meaner. Many companies have done similar these days - AMAT layed off 20% (?, might just be 15%) and promptly went up nicely. Shows proactive steps to reduce costs which is a good thing. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted: Nov 28 1998 9:43AM EST as a reply to: Msg 9356 by AugustWest79 Replies: View Replies to this Message

To: Billsig who wrote (752)	12/1/1998 1:33:00 AM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 2004

POST FROM YAHOO CONTINUED: e-commerce software growth opportunities by: AugustWest79 (36/M/Denver Colorado) 9359 of 10142 As far as e-commerce growth in general, this independent research report on e-commerce software adoption is a MUST read. forrester.com 98cmr.htm Demand for software that lets firms do business over the Net is taking shape. On-line commerce is taking off, enticing firms of all sizes to use the Internet as a low-cost, high-impact channel. These initiatives will spawn a hot market in commerce software and fundamentally change how companies buy, sell, and service. Forrester's prediction: Commerce software license revenue will skyrocket from $121 million in 1997 to $3.8 billion in the United States by 2002 $3.8B in e-commerce software projects by 2002!!!!! In the US alone. Of that Forrester predicts 37% will be sell side software which is OMKT's primary (but not only) area of expertise. "The largest slice of license revenue -- 37% -- will come from sell-side systems. This software segment, consisting primarily of catalog and auction products from vendors like Open Market and iCat, will generate $1.4 billion in 2002 because:" But OMKT also competes in the "tools" segment (with stuff like "SecureServer", "Folio", and now the various modular components of Transact), the "Services" area with implementation strategies, the "Buy Side" or B-to-B sector, and security side (Transact is a secure enterprise wide transaction processor, not just a simple storefront product). Forrester predicts that large corporations will account for the majority of e-commerce software spending. "LARGE CORPORATIONS LEAD THE WAY By 2002, Forrester forecasts that 82% of all companies in the United States with greater than 1,000 employees will be doing business on-line. These firms will spend $2.9 billion on commerce software, accounting for 77% of the total U.S. market" One look at OMKT's customer base will tell you that these types of firms are heavily into OMKT's enterprise level Transact which tie in the e-commerce side into the back end ERP systems such as the Oracle, SAP, Baan stuff. "Medium companies will energize indirect sell-side channels. The big companies dominate, but other factors also shape the market. For example, midsized firms will represent 39% of the buying entities in the market by 2002. While these units generate only 16% of overall market revenue, they account for 26% of all sell-side product revenue, pulling products and services through indirect channels like industry value-added resellers (VARs) and regional systems integrators." Check out OMKT's extensive list of partners and VARs that can exploit this indirect sales channel. openmarket.com "Most small firms will avoid buying software. The vast majority of small companies lack the technical skills to buy commerce software: Only 2.4% of small companies in the United States will go this route by 2002. Beyond the software-capable -- some of them future Amazon.coms -- the balance of small firms will sign on for monthly fees with iCat Online, Viaweb, or ISPs like AT&T that are running multimerchant hosting software from vendors like Open Market." There ya go! The much touted CSP business model which both IBM and NSCP are trying to emulate as per announcments made at the Internet trade show in NY back in Sept. So, if OMKT can capture just 10% of the $3.8B predicted by 2002, they would grow from a revenue of $60M to $380M even neglecting all European, Asia, Austraila, South America etc. That would be growth of 533% in 4 years or nearly 60% on an annual basis. NEGLECTING NON-US AND ASSUMING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN MARKET SHARE. Throw those back in and you have phenominal growth opportunities. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted: Nov 28 1998 9:46AM EST as a reply to: Msg 9358 by AugustWest79 Replies: View Replies to this Message