To: WTSherman who wrote (3919 ) 12/4/1998 9:33:00 PM From: Ed Perry Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17679
<<Its only hope lies in competing with large, well funded companies >> Just happens that my favorite column from the Publisher of Forbes Rich Karlgaard "Digital Rules" Dec 14, 98 p43 reviewed Clayton Christensen "The Innovator's Dilemma" and concluded with the following: "Great companies blow it precisely because they do everything right. He explains why top companies that had listened hard to customers and invested like crazy in new technologies still lost their market leadership when confronted with disruptive changes in technology and market structure. Poor managers are not to blame. Nor are bureaucracy, late technology or tired executive blood. The culprits are size and a company's best customers. (Karlgaard continues) Yet the most disruptive of technologies - those that create whole new industries ( the telephone, the car, the radio and the microprocessor) - always start out very small. Typical early markets consist of a few crazed pioneers who look like little more than hobbyists. Big companies, surveying this amateur enthusiasm lying layers below them, always figure they'll jump onto the bandwagon later, just before the mainstream market takes off. In theory that makes sense, and that's what business schools teach. That's how salary-driven managers in large companies see it, too. Wait and see; evaluate; jump in only when the market gets big enough. But there's one problem: Incumbents who jump ship into the disruptive new markets invariably find that the amateurs have aced the core competencies and now command the sales and the distribution choke points. Also, they possess the new brands. Another large company dilemma: resource allocation. B-school tells you to focus your capital and technology on the most profitable products demanded by your best customers. This seems logical, but, in reality, your best customers can lead you up the high-margin mountain. From such heights you can no longer see what's happening in the grubby little markets below." ................................................................. These themes echo points raised in G Moore's "Gorilla Game" Intuitively, I would always place my bet on the small focused competitor. They are the most nimble and, by necessity of survival, the most driven. Ampex, especially in the area of conversion of Internet, computers and television broadcasting has a real advantage in technology and research in the digital plus video part. IMO, the worst case scenario for Ampex, is that they will not be able to sell into "the filler" storage markets during the interval upcoming before the demand for digital television and convergence drives the market to the high speed fast access storage wall. In this eventuality, Ampex would go "For Sale" (or merger) with one of the above described large companies needing to solve their dilemma. Assets are present and a sale in the 2.00 to 3.00 range, for their technology and patent portfolio would be a steal. Regarding the high end storage market, Infostor has not yet fixed their web site, so I must delay on some excellent articles on SAN's and high speed tape of huge proportions SAN aspect. I do have another link on SANS, which while well written, does not bring out the equipment configurations and the specific highlighted place for DST Tape Libraries. So I will present them all together. Ed Perry