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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (34695)	12/1/1998 7:29:00 AM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Armstrong's latest princetoneconomics.com

To: William H Huebl who wrote (34695)	12/1/1998 7:44:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

William, The interesting wild cards that get thrown in to the ring are the repercussions from Y2K on the oil sector. Already Chevron has alluded in its recent filings that they won't have the entire problem resolved at their refineries/production platforms and there may be disruptions in their operations. Transferrng Chevron's problems to each and every refinery operation is quite acceptable and point to refineries and oil rigs shutting down for operational or safety considerations. This should bode well for unleaded gas/heating oil futures into the latter part of 1999-early 2000, while may or may not affect crude oil prices should the current glut continue until then. The needle in the haystack that Y2K managers only recently started paying major attention are the embedded systems. Refineries and Oil Rigs seem to have quite a few of them as reported by both Shell and Chevron (up to 10-13% non-compliant) And since many of these machines were custom made, the replacement lead time can be up to 12-18 months. Especially if you have everyone in the industry seeking to utilize the same manufacturers of these systems at the same time straining their production capacity. And then God-Forbid one of these manufacturers or their critical suppliers has a Y2K problem that threatens their business continuity. (Yes, I have been bitten by the Y2K bug and I won't likely recover my senses until Jan 1st, 2000.) Regards, Ron