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To: Dr. David Gleitman who wrote (83045)12/1/1998 9:34:00 AM
From: Voltaire  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
You sell and by AOL!

from the porch

Voltaire



To: Dr. David Gleitman who wrote (83045)12/1/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette  Respond to of 176387
 
Any weakness in the market will be short-term says S&P

Monday November 30, 1998 (5:18 pm ET)

Unsettled Trading with Negative Bias Likely

But indicators suggest any weakness will be only short-term

by Paul Cherney, S&P Market Analyst

NEW YORK, Nov. 30 (Standard & Poor's) - The equity markets are probably in for unsettled trading with a negative bias for the next three to five trade days. Intermediate term indicators remain bullish, however , which suggests that any short-term weakness will be short in both depth and duration. I am always willing to change my mind when confronted with new evidence, and while Monday's profit-taking was considerable, it was not outside the envelope of what would be considered just normal profit-taking.

The equity markets have skyrocketed since the October 8 close. It took the S&P 500 33 trade days to get to a new high (I'm referring to the S&P 500's 11/23/98 record close of 1188.21, which broke the 7/17/98 record high close). That represented a 33 (trade) day rate of change of 22.35%.

Was it too far, too fast? No. If historical performance is any guide; in the past, downside risk has been limited after such a bullish show of force. There have been three times since 1960 that the 33 day rate of change was at similar levels, and in the 3 months which followed each of these dates, the worst closing performance for the S&P 500 was a loss of 2.74%. If I translated that figure into today's S&P 500 performance it would mean a close at 1155.65. Nothing is ever exactly the same, but in the past, the bullish momentum created by the surge in prices as large as we have had usually just doesn't roll over and plunge.

DJIA support 9100-8900, 9035-8800
S&P 500 support 1163, 1152-1130
NASDAQ support 1902-1878