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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (7383)12/1/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: kolo55  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
Interesting. Two forecast conclusions seem to contradict.

In order to get to flat Semi-equipment sales for 99 over 98, it seems we need an increase in Semiconductor sales. The Semi-equipment sales in early 98 were quite strong, hitting record numbers. I can't see how we get back to record Semi-equipment sales by the end of 99, with no growth in Semiconductor sales.

Certainly we should see much lower Semi-equipment sales in 1999. The question is how much decline should we see? My best guess would be climbing back to the long term trend line of $1100M to $1200M per month, and with most of this climb in the 2nd half of 99. If the average monthly sales next year is $1000M per month, then total sales would be $12B. This should result in at least a 15-20% decline in semi-equipment revenues from the approximately $14.6B we should see this year.

Paul



To: Math Junkie who wrote (7383)12/1/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Q.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10921
 
re. <<If that forecast is correct, it will be very bullish for equipment stocks. >>

I think that the market has already priced in a 1999 industry rebound to early '98 sales levels. The stock prices are generally at early 1998 levels for small players, and considerably higher for the big semi equips.

So I think the bullish action you refer to has already taken place.


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