To: Mr. Oil who wrote (1773 ) 12/2/1998 9:29:00 AM From: PSkars Respond to of 2346
Raythe, I believe that the POG is very stable in here and that 1999 will see a much higher level, as well as silver. Right now both gold and silver are under manipulation by both gov't and hedge funds...however, this is about to change...In 1999 you have the Euro being introduced, along with that are the commitments of the central banks not to sell any more gold reserves, or lend them out....at this point the concern by the central banks is not making more money on their gold supply, but simply getting it back from those to whom they lent it....as we saw with LTCM...without the FEDS intervention, we would now be looking at a price of over $500/oz. easily...the world is short 8,000 TONS of gold at this moment and there are a lot of worried people out there at the hedge funds...the next time the stock market takes a dump, will be the last for these players and the unwinding of the short positions will occur. These moves will be rapid and will leave little time for one to position themselves in the gold market...it will also be the mother of all short coverings. As for the price of gold, IMHO, I would see it much higher in the first six months of 1999 and significantly higher at the end of 1999...because of the Y2K problems....1999 will be the year that all hell breaks loose, starting with the stock market...then problems in Japan...then problems in South America...then problems in USA....all compounded by people starting to buy enormous amounts of gold in both coin bullion and rare coins in particular (this we are already seeing)....then the hoarding of cash which will put a strain on the banking system...that oh by the way...has not yet told us about the real losses they have sustained in this last go around...SO, I always like to say, play the best odds in the house, and right now shorting any gold stocks is betting against the house. Best of luck in your trading and financial decisions.