Settops start to roll in 1999???????????????????????
wired.com
Set-Tops: The Longest Promise
by Christopher Jones
3:00 a.m. 2.Dec.98.PST
Trying to get cable operators, computer companies, and networking groups on the same page is a little like asking the NBA and the NFL to play by the same rule book. But that is exactly what set-top-box companies must accomplish in 1999.
The Western Cable Show, happening this week in Anaheim, California, is where chipmakers, software firms, and high-speed-modem makers meet in one room, and the set-top box is their common playing field.
Cable operators are standing by, waiting for industry standards to take hold before they begin to offer new, high-bandwidth interactive services to their customers.
"There are several issues here, and it's confusing to the cable industry and real confusing to the outside world," said Gary Arlen, president of Arlen Communications in Bethesda, Maryland. "Is a digital set-top box the same as a cable modem? Today, the answer is no, but later on maybe. [Set-top makers] don't know which of these games is going to work."
The basic premise is to merge TV with the Internet to create a whole new platform for entertainment and advertising. Set-top users will be able to order pay-per-view movies, use email, browse the Web, shop electronically, and create in-home networks.
That's assuming cable providers figure out which systems to sell and what networks to plug them into.
CableLabs, a consortium of over 60 cable providers headed by John Malone of Tele-Communications Inc., or TCI, is setting the standard for set-top-box technology. The consortium wants all set-top components to adhere to its OpenCable standard and work well together, but the standard is only now being adopted.
Equipment manufacturers are expected to roll out the first products based on the spec in early 1999.
Arlen said that the OpenCable standard -- along with another specification known as Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification, or DOCSIS -- is essential if the retail market for set-top boxes is to take off. DOCSIS will allow high-speed cable modems to communicate with each other; OpenCable will do the same for digital set-top boxes. DOCSIS has been in the final stages of development since last year.
"They say the Holy Grail is supposed to be ready next month," said Arlen, referring to DOCSIS. "I heard that last February, and here we are in December."
But none of it will go anywhere without marketplace acceptance.
Even big cable providers like TCI are taking a wait-and-see approach. But with millions of satellite-based set-top boxes, they may not be able to wait much longer, said John Cassell, an analyst with Dataquest.
"Cable is just starting to come up to speed ... but starting next year, we'll see the deployment of digital-cable boxes that are among the most advanced," Cassell said.
"TCI has been looking at a wide variety of services, seeing what they can squeeze out of the infrastructure for telephony, home banking, commerce. We'll see how quickly these will occur, though. Who knows what order they'll come in? But the pieces are in place."
General Instruments has a range of set-top products and services. Along with Scientific Atlanta, General Instruments is one of the companies betting big on the market. On Monday, the company announced a system that lets consumers to simultaneously watch television, surf the Web, and talk on the phone.
GI also announced a deal that will integrate Sony's home-entertainment technology with its set-top boxes.
Scientific Atlanta has recruited former Apollo astronaut Buzz Aldrin to pitch its digital, interactive set-top box -- the Explorer 2000 -- at the show.
Edward Silva, senior manager for product marketing at C-Cube, which manufactures chips for set-top boxes, said the OpenCable standard will let consumers choose from a variety of set-tops, expected to carry a US$300 price tag.
"Now that these [standards] are in place, defining a two-way protocol, the market is ready for mass distribution. You'll see major rollouts really ramp up in the second half of 1999," he said.
Meanwhile, industry analyst firm Dataquest predicted Tuesday that the worldwide cable-modem market will grow 130 percent in 1998, with shipments reaching 492,000 units, up from 214,000 units in 1997.
The firm also noted that the market for cable modems and high-speed cable Internet access stalled this year as cable-network operators waited for finalization of the DOCSIS standard and shipment of standards-based infrastructure equipment.
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