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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (3905)	12/2/1998 5:24:00 AM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

A lot of people have gone broke trying to guess the bottom of the oil market since the beginning of the year, good luck. Perhaps you've also heard about the college professor (I forget who) who made a bet with Paul Ehrlich, the famous environmentalist, about whether the price of a whole basket of commodities would be lower or higher after 10 years. The college professor was betting that the prices would be lower, while environmentalists (remember the Club of Rome?) paint the picture that commodities are increasingly rare and will therefore become increasingly expensive. The college professor won easily. Remember the first oil shock in the early seventies when the environmentalists were saying we would run out of oil within 30 years? It's one of the most basic facts of economic history that commodity prices are in a long-run downtrend. I think your observations are right on target. [disclaimer: I am not against environmentalists, in fact I use string bags instead of plastic, conserve energy, and recycle religiously. But the environmentalists are pretty weak at economics].

To: Peter V who wrote (3905)	12/2/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: xcr600	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

Peter, guess I'm dyslexic. I did mean oil cheaper than beer. I'm not looking to guess the bottom, but just attempting to apply Bill's logic to buy out of favor companies. I don't understand commodities as well, and political issues can always play a role in oil as well. I guess if I owned some issues, and the prices still declined, I couldn't complain too much since it sure is nice to fill the car up for under ten bucks! Anyone have any thoughts on Boeing as a cheap out of favor stock?