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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (32339)	12/2/1998 7:59:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Rational expectations/Crude Prices... Even the ''Bearish'' prognosticator NOESIS paints a much less than ''gloom & Doom'' picture for near-term crude prices. In my opinion this is a ''trading'' anomaly for both crude oil prices and oilpatch stocks. We are making this more complicated than it actually is. US refiners bought all the crude they could untill storage tanks were filled to the brim; and why wouldn't they ? It was only good business sense to ''over-buy'' historically cheap crude - as who knew when it would end ? Now there is no refiner demand ''short-term'' as stocks get worked off. Since there is little near term demand the short sellers have ''laid'' on crude and the nearterm prices have been crushed due to many, many sellers and virtually no buyers. Does today's crude prices reflect a prolonged ''fair value'' for crude oil going forward longterm ? I don't think so, nor do many others. Even NOESIS the most bearish of crude oil forecasters predicts a mildly positive near term outlook as follows: oil-gasoline.com Dead Money is ''death'' to fund managers currently. There is an absolute mad rush to squeeze out a few more % points on returns for these managers by year end; they can not afford to hold ANY dead money here - with the overall market moving so well. There are just few Institutional big Block buyers here, and lots of sellers. IMHO, we will see them return in spades come January. All of the reduced E&P activity, the shut in of unprofitable wells and continued OPEC cuts will balance out the supply overhang. The consolidation of Mobil & Exxon was started in June. This is not an overnight panic reaction to some ''new'' developments in Crude Oil pricing. The mergers are more about meeting shareholder earnings expectations than about any ''survival'' issues. Sure we will have some casualties here in small high debt companies perhaps, some small non-public companies may go the wayside, but the unequivocal trueism of the certainity that an enviroment of $10 crude creates an enviroment of $20+ crude is undeniable in due time. Time and Patience are priced like ''call options'' here; these prices, this low, are like buying cheap out of the money calls for pennies... GLBL was worth $10-$14 per share when the entire International Financial Market was in total meltdown; when we had a myriad of unanswered questions; but ''now'' it is only worth $5 ? 1/3rd from where it had rebounded to in an enviroment of International uncertainity ? Me, I'll buy here and into any further declines; as comparing current stockprices and that NOESIS forecast of $15+ crude oil in ''6 short months;'' is the greatest return on the ''time value of money'' that I can ever recall...