To: Alex who wrote (23716 ) 12/2/1998 7:29:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116756
IMF admits controls could be a bulwark By Joanne Gray, Washington A chink has appeared in the once impermeable armour of the International Monetary Fund. It has conceded that controls on short-term capital flows can be useful, contradicting the policy stance of the United States, its most influential member. The IMF's assistant research director, Mr Charles Adams, said at an IMF seminar in Washington that there was "a case" for "Chilean-type taxes on short-term capital inflows" because the financial sectors in many emerging economies were not strong enough to withstand massive capital withdrawals. However, he said such controls should be part of broader measures aimed at strengthening prudential regulation, liquidity and risk management. "Against that background a Chilean-type tax may play some role," Mr Adams said. But he added that there would be strong incentive to avoid such a tax. Mr Adams' comments also back a recent IMF study which concluded that a tax on short-term capital flows could prevent bank runs, and through this channel, could increase the expected returns of investing in emerging markets. The enormous costs of the economic crisis in Asia have caused a sustained bout of navel-gazing at the IMF. It appears to have accepted some responsibility for worsening the crisis by imposing excessively deflationary monetary and fiscal regimes on the stricken countries, whose economies have plunged into recession. The IMF relaxed its strict adherence to tough fiscal and monetary regimes in subsequent rescue negotiations. The World Bank has already concluded that taxes on short-term capital inflows may reduce the risk of financial crises, and a growing number of advocates in Australia, (including Reserve Bank governor Mr Ian Macfarlane), Japan and France argue that such controls would be useful. The US however, has not ceded any ground on the issue. The Treasury Secretary, Mr Robert Rubin, said in October that capital controls were not the remedy for the financial crisis. But a recent IMF working paper found that by imposing a tax on short-term capital inflows, a government could prevents bank runs, thereby reducing the costs of withdrawing from emerging markets. It assumed a tax that was inversely proportional to the length of the stay of the inflow. "A large international bank is more prone to invest in any particular emerging market if it knows the liquidity conditions in that market do not create obstacles to eventual disinvestment," the study found. Such a tax could reduce the vulnerability of an emerging market to financial crises, increase the total volume of funds entering the country and improve the expected returns of investments, it found. At the IMF seminar Mr Adams said that as the crisis evolved and spread to Russia and threatened to embrace Latin America as well, an important question was being asked. "Are there features of the system . . . that contribute to the difficulties over and above the problems of individual countries? This questioning is part of this process of trying to prescribe cures. "What we have at the moment is a system in which many emerging markets have begun to participate in international capital markets. We have simultaneously some very mature, sophisticated financial markets, strong financial infrastructures, strong financial systems. "In an ideal world one might have imagined one would perhaps have seen less capital flow into some of these emerging markets, given all the problems that have subsequently been noted," Mr Adams said. "But capital did flow. So we got ourselves into a system where we had the flows of capital before we had all the supporting infrastructure and financial strength, and perhaps before it was possible for this capital to be digested efficiently. So we had a problem there. We didn't have all the elements of crisis management there." afr.com.au