Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Yamana Resources INC. T- YRI -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (1779)	12/2/1998 3:02:00 PM
From: Daytek77	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2346

Thomas, I am afraid I have to disagree with your assessment overall. You state "that shorting mining stocks has been far more lucrative than shorting internet stocks." The key phrase IMO is "has been" as in past tense. These stocks are down 70,80 95% in some cases off their highs. Even using your examples, which are skewed because these are the strongest companies in the group, Yhoo went from $105 to $55 and Aol from $70 - $35 in the July Sept time frame. Amazon was an even better score it went from $140 to $65 in this period. The time to have been looking at Gold stocks was the period when Bob Bishop was touting Corriente to go to $50 when it was $14 about 2 years ago. You also state that "..most of these companies wind up with jack-all..." I suggest to you that neither you nor anyone else can tell me with certainty whether Ebay, Amazon or the Globe.com or any of the myriad of Internet plays will have the right business model for what the internet will be like 5 years from now. Look at the technology leaders five years ago and a lot of them have disappeared. How can egghead file for chapter 11 bankruptcy a few months ago come back as an "internet play" and the stock goes from $1 to over $30!!. This is the area where you will find the greatest short opportunities. As for Yamana they are concentrating on their most advanced project which I believe will become a mine. Finally in the most brutal junior gold market in 30 or 40 years you still could have tripled and doubled your money on this stock in the last year!

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (1779)	12/2/1998 5:20:00 PM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2346

Being short a stock is exactly the same as being long once you understand the probabilities that drive the value of the equity. Clearly, it's best to only short stocks that are going to zero. But it is just as good to have a set of probabilities that imply a stock is unlikely to go up even if the best case scenario comes true. That's what I currently believe about YRI. The probability is that its assets cannot carry the current market value and the immediate dilution that is already built into the capital structure. The odds are the stock will go down not up. If this reasoning is applied to long positions and short positions the odds are that you will win over time. Given that the home run happens rarely in the mining business the odds are against any company hitting the mega deposit, especially on one hole. (Economic) ore deposits are extremely rare but there's lot's of good drill holes that tend to confuse things. Owning a stock seems to come with a bias that has proven costly to me in the past. I'm just trying to learn from my mistakes, recognizing that I can't do anything about the quality of the grey matter. I'm not arguing for either. I just want to make money consistently and know why it happens. By the way, some of the best shorts on the NASDAQ are non-resource stocks that have come from $20 to $2 and are going to zero because they have no business. These are best but don't happen often.