To: J.B.C. who wrote (19041 ) 12/2/1998 3:11:00 PM From: Ruffian Respond to of 152472
Top 10 Predictions> om PC Magazine, December 15, 1998 Ten Predictions for '99 By John C. Dvorak Since the upcoming year is the last before the odometer flips to 2000, one has to assume that no matter what happens, it'll be overanalyzed by historians and pundits alike. Because the importance of things in 1999 (including anything carried over from 1998) will be exaggerated, it's a perfect time for me to try to outguess the market and the future. These are my end-of-century predictions. Price becomes king, again. We're already seeing hints of sub-$500 no-name computers, and we can expect the $500 price barrier to be broken forever by the end of 1999. This will probably both save and kill the PC market, and it will change the way we think about computers in the 21st century. Sub-$500 machines will bring the mass of humanity into the fold, and they'll turn the scene into a commodity business not unlike the market for stereo gear or VCRs. Retail is stronger than ever. While everyone is raving about the emerging e-commerce scene and how it will change the face of the world, retail is bigger than ever. Industry observers seem to be ignoring the fact that Gateway (one of the leading direct-sales companies) now has 94 retail stores, with plans for more. IBM is on the verge of opening a worldwide chain. In 1999, this phenomenon will burst onto the scene to the surprise of everyone--everyone who hasn't been paying attention, that is. Desktop flat-panel becomes the standard. The new digital flat-panel screens are so hip and cool that while the masses will be buying cheap machines, the serious computer users (like you) will be spending their money on these new displays. Broadband cometh. With every phone company jumping on the ADSL bandwagon while cable modem technology begins to proliferate, 1999 will be seen as a turning point for broadband on the desktop. It will probably still take a decade to unfold. Gigabit Ethernet will be seen in the same light. The majority of users will probably stay with slow connections and old browsers, and 1999 will be a year of decisions. The big decision will be whether to make a Web page fancy and slow or simple and fast for those folks who don't wish to keep up the pace. Optical everywhere. Optical technologies have sputtered over the years, but the turn of the century will mark their emergence as a permanent part of the landscape. DVD will finally become standard, and everyone will own one form of write technology or another. With blank CD-R disks a buck and a half at Costco/ Price Club, you know something will be going on! Personal firewalls are coming. This is my pet prediction. As people get attacked more and more by TCP/IP exploits, there will be a serious demand for personal firewalls. Also, as horror stories emerge about industrial and personal espionage (mostly email tampering) the public will demand portal-to-portal encryption. Internet mania is over. As this is written we are already beginning to see a slowdown in interest in the Net. People are seeing it for what it is: a network! Ancillary-network mania is about to begin. I'm referring to home and small-office networks, which should become ubiquitous once the big boys start to market them properly. I'm amazed at how many small offices don't have simple networks installed. The home network will allow people to share an Internet connection, which should be reason enough for installation. The Palm phenomenon continues unabated--with a twist. I'm an advocate of the Palm computer and other hand-helds, but I haven't completely written off the remote-data concept developed by AT&T Wireless and others, whereby you have a phone that can access your address book over a wireless network. Most interesting in this regard is the Qualcomm pdQ Smartphone, which has a Palm organizer built in. This is all heading toward an all-in-one device. Software is dead. People are wondering why there is a slowdown in the industry without noticing that there's a paucity of interesting new software products. This is less a function of lost creativity than of filled categories. Developers have filled all the general-purpose niches, and their products have matured. Most don't ever need to be updated! I'm writing this column using a text editor that's at least ten years old. Is there an overriding theme to all this? Yes, things are always subtly changing in this industry, and predictions like these are common. But because these changes and others are taking place at this juncture, we can expect many to be blown out of proportion. Let's wait and see.