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To: Bill Hermesmann who wrote (16087)	12/3/1998 11:03:00 AM
From: Moonray	Respond to of 25814

Worst of the Silicon Chip Recession Over for Months; Forecaster Once Again Accurately Catches the Volatile Industry's Turning Point BW - 08:07 a.m. Dec 02, 1998 Eastern CUPERTINO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 2, 1998-- Third quarter '98 data of actual integrated circuit (IC) shipments confirm that the semiconductor recession hit its lowest period last July -- an industry turning point that market researcher Advanced Forecasting, Inc. (AFI) had already successfully called in early July. This prediction marks AFI's fourth successful market recovery forecast in a row! In the July issue of its monthly IC Turning-Points Forecast, the Silicon Valley-based forecaster noted that the industry had already passed through the worst part of the recession. In fact, since the industry's lowest point, microprocessor sales have climbed more than 25 percent. "Like the three previous industry recessions, it was a bit difficult to convince our clients that the worst is over," says Dr. Moshe Handelsman, president and founder of AFI. "But since this is the fourth time in the past 12 years that we have successfully predicted the recovery, we're used to some healthy skepticism." AFI serves more than 150 clients, many of whom are the world's largest semiconductor manufacturers and their equipment and materials vendors. And they are becoming accustomed to the forecaster's demonstrated accuracy. "He (Dr. Handelsman) is the most accurate forecaster I'm aware of," says Clayton Mohr, director of Corporate Marketing for Electro Scientific Industries in Portland, Ore. A university professor before founding AFI in 1986, Dr. Handelsman distinguishes his company from other forecasting groups that base their predictions largely on extrapolations of opinions gathered from industry managers. Instead, he invested over 18 months in developing a quantitative forecasting model that employs unbiased measurements of economic factors that influence the demand for end-equipment. The model accurately predicted the 1987, 1992 and 1997 recoveries. "Our top management pays more attention to Advanced Forecasting's predictions than to any other industry source," says Jean-Philippe Dauvin, group VP and chief economist of STMicroelectronics. A by-product of AFI's forecasts, the IC Recovery Index, has proven to be a valuable tool for investors re-entering the volatile semiconductor stock segment. "Every time this Index indicated an upswing during a semiconductor recession, it proved to be a great opportunity to buy low," notes Handelsman, who adds, "I've heard my share of 'Thanks, you did it again!'" AFI provides quantitative forecasts of all ICs and discrete devices, semiconductor equipment (front-end and ATE), disk drives, and PCBs. It is the only forecaster that guarantees its forecasting services with a 6-month full refund. More information about AFI's methodology, publications, and services is available online at adv-forecast.com. Note to editors: A historical graph of the IC Recovery Index is available from AFI via fax or e-mail. Copyright 1998, Business Wire o~~~ O