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Technology Stocks : HDCO - Why sudden dip? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (532)	12/3/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: rich evans	Respond to of 572

Also interesting to compare HDCO cc with PGTZ results/call last Oct 20th. PGTZs gross margins last quarter were 17% up from 15% but I think they do more Q/T design then HDCO on a percentage of gross revs. Of course HDCO has the VAM contribution. PGTZs problem seems to be the SGA which was 12.7%. But their B/B had risen to 1.2 and their Malaysia facility seemed to be doing better than HDCOs. PGTZs gross margins were a lot higher than HDCOs despite running at the same capicity utilization of about 80% for US facilities and their problems getting Huntsville going. Huntsville and Malaysia cost PGTZ 8 cents a share of which 5 cents was Malaysia. So maybe HDCO can do better than 15% gross margin. PGTZs margin improvement was 80% cap utilization leverage and 20% materials according to them .Back in Sept I thought about switching horses and putting the HDCO shares into more JBIL and FLEX and now I am kicking myself. But I thought that HDCO had more earning power when things rebounded. I'm thinking now that HDCOs earning power is more in the $2-3/share and not the $3-4 based on their present capacity limits of 1.2 bill which they are not increasing according to cc. HDCOs is constrained by their high debt and I don,t know if they can keep pace with the Taiwanese or Hicks Muse who have lots more money. But the sun is shining here at last so I think I'll walk the dog and think about other things. Rich

To: kolo55 who wrote (532)	1/13/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 572

Hdco downgraded by K. Dunne today at Robby Stevens reducing 99 and 2000 estimates considerably. I think it is margin related for one thing. But with DIIG buying IBMs volume PCB business in Austin with IBM committing to buy its needs there for 3 years and SLR buying IBM assembly in Austin, I am guessing that the SLR Austin PCB business will be going to DIIG as part of the SLR deal and not HDCO. I thought I was clear on my $40 put Friday but now I will own some more. Should have closed when HDCO hit 41. Oh well maybe a blessing in disguise who knows. Do you still own your position and have any thoughts on HDCO looking forward? Rich