To: Tim Luke who wrote (2198 ) 12/3/1998 12:44:00 AM From: Jeffrey Lee Respond to of 90042
Tim, Here's an excerpt from Argus Independent Equity Research's "Action Facts AM" for Thursday, December 3, 1998. They put out two of these a day (an AM and a PM). I'm not trying to vouch or give credence to this, just thought you might appreciate another source of info since you're a regular trader in ASND. The 2nd paragraph makes mention of the "controversial" equipment financing issue (that was raised after their most recent earnings report) and certainly the ASND thread would be quick to attack this as pure bullshit. Again, I'm not offering any opinions here. I sold my 500 shares at $55 last week. No position at present. Follows: We are lowering our investment rating on the ASND shares of Ascend Communications to HOLD from BUY. With the stock price zooming more than 130% year-to-date, we believe it is an appropriate time for investors to take profits. Trading at 36-times our EPS estimate of $1.59 for 1999, the shares are at a lofty valuation that makes them vulnerable to sell-offs. Although Ascend sells data networking gear into the fast-growing telecom market, it faces severe competition from industry leader Cisco Systems. Pricing pressures on individual contracts to telco service providers are likely to bring high volatility to the ASND shares. For example, every time Ascend has to offer concessions to customers in the form of equipment financing or price discounts, these efforts cut more deeply into its profit margin than for its larger competitors. Ascend has been widely viewed as a takeover candidate; this perception has been one of the drivers of the stock price. This perception, however, also results in greater volatility for the shares as investors follow the rumor of the day. We believe there will likely be a pullback in the future that would give investors another opportunity to buy in. The HOLD-rated ASND shares closed Wednesday at $57-9/16, down 7/16. (DT) JLT