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To: orkrious who wrote (20319)12/3/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: BillyG  Respond to of 25960
 
ASML still sees opportunity to gain on Japan's litho suppliers
semibiznews.com

A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted 8:30 a.m. EST/5:30 a.m. PST, 12/3/98

By Will Wade

TOKYO--ASM Lithography claims it has already bypassed Canon Inc. for
the No. 2 spot in the world's lithography market, and now the Dutch company
expects to continue taking business away form its Japanese competitors in the
year ahead.

The sluggish economy and weak semiconductor market in Japan is hindering
ASML's attempts to penetrate the country's market, but is also helping boost
its global market share by limiting the sales of its competition, according to
company managers interviewed here during the Semicon Japan equipment
trade show.

Evert Polak, vice president of marketing, predicted that ASML will see its
share of the total lithography market increase to about 28% this year, up a
few points from its 1997 rank of 25%.


At the same time, top lithography vendor Nikon Corp. is expecting to see its
stepper revenues decline, with flat sales of deep ultra-violet systems and
falling sales of i-line systems. Kiwamu Koizumi, manger of Nikon's sales
system group, said the company expects to ship about 200 DUV systems this
year, roughly the same as it sold in 1997. However, with fewer sales of the
older i-line tools and lower prices for the existing DUV technology, Nikon's
total revenued will be lower, according to Koizumi.


ASML's Polak predicted that Nikon's market share could slip to some 40%
this year, down from about 44% in 1997.

With the current state of the Japanese market, Nikon's Koizumi has no
confidence that 1999 will see stronger sales. He said, "1998 will probably turn
out to be better than 1999, but we hope to see a better market in the next
century."

Polak said ASML has almost no presence in Japan, partly due to the weak
market and also due to the dominant role of Canon and Nikon in this country.
However, ASML has been securing sales in the rest of the world, and the
company is now looking to increase its share in this country.

"The Japanese market is not easy to penetrate, and the business situation
doesn't help," Polak said. However, he said ASML may see some Japanese
sales in the near future, and added that the company has recently closed a
deal in Korea. Both countries have been forced to cut back capital spending
this year as a result of the Asian economic situation, although most analysts
and executives agree that lithography systems are very high on the shortlist of
where to allocate what little capital funds do exist.

"Not being a Japanese company makes it harder to do business here. We
have to put more on the plate than a Japanese supplier might have to do in
order to please a customer," Polak said. "However, we see our chances
moving up in the Japanese market."



To: orkrious who wrote (20319)12/3/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: FJB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
Jay,

Those numbers sound too high. I'm thinking about a 3000 unit installed base at that time with annual per laser service revenue of $100K to $150K. Add that to the 80% of $1B. That's my WAG and I'm probably way off. I DO know the stock will be much higher at some point between now and 2003. <VBG>

Bob