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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (101)	12/3/1998 8:19:00 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Respond to of 99985

Thanks LG,looks like a new ball game, can't fight rate cuts,even in Europe..;^)-short term..DD

To: HairBall who wrote (101)	12/3/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

My 2 cents worth- First: Congrats on the successful start to the thread. With all the extra brain numbing analysis here- now I will be even less productive in my real job.-gg- This will likely have little effect on the GDP, so don't worry. Second: To get on the record here, My Market Call- I am still very bearish for the long term. This market will likely continue to whipsaw for a long time. I feel that we are very close to an ultimate top in the 16 year bull. As I said in July.. We are likely on the verge of one of the greatest selling opportunities of all time. There will be money to made both long and short, but only for the very nimble trader. I'm sticking with my shorter term trend indicator (the THDMAPFP), which says we have a bit more upside before the big selloff begins. The point of impending disaster would be 2060 on the NAZ. What are the reasons behind my extreme bearishness for the long term? HISTORY, my friend. Call it technical analysis, call it fundamental, call it what you want, but history does repeat itself, if not exactly, then very similarly. Virtually every historic indication that I can find is telling me that the market top is near, and you have to be deluded to "invest" in this market. Here's a few: - Public participation is extreme. - The public is certain that every dip is a buying opportunity, and any 'correction' will be washed away in short order. - The market is running to new highs on the backs of a few popular stocks. Decreasing new highs. - A/D line peaked in 4/98. - Rampant speculation in 'fad' stocks (internuts). - Merger mainia, IPO mania. - Highest P/E ratios of all time. - Market valued at 140% of GDP. (typically 50-70%) - and many more Have a nice day :) TW EDIT: Don't miss my story "the Road to Retirement City" at geocities.com